Antichavism, between hope and discouragement and looking for a plan B in Venezuela

In the midst of clashes between loyal and anti-regime soldiers and popular demonstrations harshly repressed by the official security forces, the military leaders, represented by the defense minister, Vladimir Padrino López, has shown no flaws in its public support to the occupant of the Miraflores Palace. Washington's allusions to a supposed accession of the strongman of the Bolivarian National Armed Forces (FANB) to the replacement of the "son of Chávez" will appear, apparently, in the form of speeches until the next episode of the saga.

Guaidó has lit the rocket like never since his appointment in January to the presidency of the National Assembly (Parliament), managing to activate for the first time a rebellion in the FANB; without it, it seems, anti-hijacking will cost him to win, beyond the damage that the US oil embargo accentuates in an economy on the verge of dissolution.

This conatus of military rebellion allowed the current leader of the fight against Chavez to surprise Tuesday morning with the release of Leopoldo López, under house arrest. The troops said they had accepted his pardon, a move that triggered a civil-military movement that, to succeed, should be reinforced by new support in the barracks.

The response in the regional units was not that expected at the moment or, at least, it was not up to the risk that Guaidó and López badumed by leaping into the void. For both, the option is, at this point, all or nothing: either triumph or arrest or exile.

The situation, about the closure of this Tuesday of agitation, was still fluid. The signs do not appear, temporarily, those expected by the opponents, who had to recover the initiative after a long quarter during which they have not managed to precipitate the events.

However, nothing will be the same in Venezuela. The big data of the attempt is that, for the first time, the "crack" managed to get into the barracks, fracturing a FANB in ​​which elements appear ready to remove the abbreviation of the last letter.

Even if Chavism prevails, Maduro will not necessarily do it. Although she continues to summon the fidelity of the military wing, there is no policy of generosity totally stripped and her supporters today could well spend money tomorrow to perceive the favors provided.

This seems to be betting on Donald Trump's government at this point: if there is no victory with weapons, look for a policy in which some elements with firepower will understand the convenience of opening the transition to post-war. Without Maduro and his later allies in between.

Trump's national security advisor said that Padrino, the president of the Supreme Court of Justice of Venezuela, Maikel Moreno, and the commander of the presidential guard, Iván Rafael Hernández, had already decided to leave the country. Maduro. True or not, those mentioned are already invited to a new table.

As long as it has not been settled, it will not be Chavismo or Antichávism that will govern Venezuela. What will be ordered will be the void.