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Less than a month before the start of the COVID-19 vaccine booster campaign, Israel is seeing signs of impact on the country’s high rates of infection and serious illness., powered by the fast-spreading Delta variant, officials and scientists say.
Delta arrived in Israel in June, just as the country was starting to reap the benefits of one of the fastest vaccine deployments in the world.
With an open economy and the removal of most restrictions, Israel has gone from a single-digit daily number of infections and zero deaths to around 7,500 daily cases last week, 600 people hospitalized in serious condition and more than 150 deaths this week alone..
On July 30, it began giving a third dose of the Pfizer / BioNtech vaccine to people over 60 and became the first country to do so. On Thursday, it expanded eligibility to over 40 years whose second dose was administered at least 5 months previously. Authorities considered reducing the age and announced on Tuesday that the strip is now reserved for people over 30.
In the last ten days, infections are on the decline in those over 60. More than a million of them have already received a third dose of the vaccine, according to data from Israel’s health ministry and scientists interviewed by the news agency Reuters.
The rate of disease spread among vaccinated people aged 60 and over – known as the reproduction rate – began to decline steadily around August 13 and fell below 1, which indicates that each infected person transmits the virus to less than one person. A reproduction rate of less than 1 means that the epidemic is decreasing.
Scientists claim that booster injections impact infections, but other factors are also likely to contribute to the decline.
“The numbers are still very high, but what has changed is that the very sharp increase in the rate of infections and severe cases has decreased, as has the rate of spread of the pandemic”, noted Éran Segal, data scientist at the Weizmann Institute of Sciences and government advisor.
“This is probably due to the third boosters, an increase in the number of people taking the first dose and the high number of people infected per week, possibly up to 100,000, who now have natural immunity.”added.
Reinforcement against new closures
After hitting one of the highest per capita infection rates in the world this month, the question now is if Israel can get out of a fourth epidemic without imposing another shutdown that harms its economy.
Have met evidence showing that although the vaccine is still very effective in preventing serious illness, its protection wanes over time. But there is no consensus among scientists and agencies about the need for a third dose, and the World Health Organization (WHO) has said more of the world should be vaccinated with it. a first dose before people get a third.
The United States has announced plans to offer booster doses to all Americans, eight months after your second dose, citing data showing decreased protection. Canada, France and Germany are also planning reinforcement campaigns.
About one million of the 9.3 million Israelis have so far chosen not to be vaccinated at all, and children under 12 still cannot get the vaccine. Last Thursday, health authorities said they had detected a decreased immunity in those under 40, although relatively few became seriously ill.
According to Doron Gazit, a member of the Hebrew University COVID-19 expert team advising the government, the increase in cases of critically ill people vaccinated in the 60+ age group has stopped over the years. Last 10 days.
“We attribute it to the recall shots and more cautious behavior lately.”, dijo Gazit.
More than half of those over 60 received the third dose, according to the Ministry of Health.
Rate of serious new cases in unvaccinated patients aged 70 and over is now seven times higher than in vaccinated patients, and the gap will continue to widen as infections increase, according to Gazit. Among those over 50, this difference is quadrupled.
“We are optimistic, but very cautious,” Israel’s health minister said on Sunday. Nitzan Horowitz, on the public channel Kan. “It gives us more time, slows down the spread and we move away from the blockade”, he assured.
But even if reinforcements are slowing the pace of the pandemic, it is unlikely that the Delta variant can be avoided entirely.
Dvir aran, a biomedical data scientist at Technion – Israel Institute of Technology, said that Although cases are on the decline, other measures are needed in addition to reinforcements to stop the pandemic. “It will take a long time for enough people to receive the third dose and by then thousands more will become seriously ill.”, he claimed.
Since the arrival of Delta, Israel reimposed indoor mask use, meeting limitations, and stepped up rapid testing.
(With information from Reuters)
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