Arab Spring: Popular rebellion in two countries

TUNISIA.- The European Union has been transforming the Middle East for a long time. It is therefore not surprising that at the same time, the first summit took place last week in Egypt between the leaders of European and Arab countries under the title "Invest in stability", two of the nations present,

Algeria

and Sudan are experiencing popular revolts whose outcome is uncertain: it is true that rebellions called "Arab Spring" have led to civil wars or authoritarian regimes, with notable exception from Tunisia, the protests of Algeria and Sudan demonstrate that the equation that equates dictatorship with stability is incorrect.

The revolt in Sudan began on December 19 and was sparked by the government's decision to raise the price of bread, which tripled. Immediately, the demonstrations began demanding the resignation of the
President Omar al-Bashir. Despite the violent police repression, which has already claimed at least 60 lives according to human rights organizations, stubborn protests in the streets have not undermined even the state's statement emergency, declared at the end of February.

In a new expression of a global trend, the protests were organized by civil society groups rather than opposition parties. More specifically, in Sudan, the Sudanese Professionals Association, which brings together mainly doctors, professors and engineers, is calling events. However, students are also often added, young activists mobilized via the Internet and activists from opposition parties. A sign of the strength of the movement is that in a country marked by a long tradition of tribal and ethnic conflict, mobilizations have spread throughout the country, including the capital. Without a doubt, al-Bashir faces the most dangerous challenge to his power since he became president in 1989 by a coup d'etat.

The scenario adopted by the international community is a peaceful transition, agreed between the government and the opposition, which prevents the country from sinking into chaos. "Because of his character, I find it hard to see that Al-Bashir is resigning of his own free will.It could be dismissed from his own party by some sectors opposed to his persistence in power," he said. a Sudanese political badyst who prefers to remain anonymous. The other two suffer a blow to the state of the army or a saccination of the regime that leads to a bloodbath.

In Algeria, the revolt is much more recent and the reaction of the authorities less violent: there are only two weeks and no deadly victim. It shares its civilian character with the Sudanese, since the calls were launched by groups of citizens on social networks and by some discredited opposition parties. The trigger was the decision to present President Abdelaziz Bouteflika in the April 18 presidential elections, which many sectors regard as humiliation. At 81 years old and seven years after suffering a cerebral infarction that put him in a wheelchair, Bouteflika is an "invisible" president. Since 2013, he has not spoken in public and the majority of respondents feel that his impaired ability does not allow him to govern the country. Therefore, the main demand is the withdrawal of his candidacy and the opening of a democratic transition.

"The candidacy of Bouteflika is the result of the lack of agreement between the various factions of the regime on his successor," said journalist Othman Lahiani. According to rumors circulating in Algerian rumors, the brain that moves the strings behind the inert figure of the president is his brother Said. The dilemma facing the power, as the de facto powers of the Maghreb country know, is not easy to solve: is it better to insist on the candidacy of "raïs", which could lead to an escalation of mobilizations, or impose a successor that does not have strong support from all factions? Unlike their parents, a new generation of young people without the crippling trauma of the bloody civil war of the 1990s will not be content with aesthetic changes.

Today, the official media have confirmed the candidacy of Bouteflika. But the president said he was determined, if he was elected on April 18, not to complete his term and to withdraw after an early presidential election, the date of which would be fixed at the same time. outcome of a "national conference".

According to Professor Marc Lynch, it is problematic to define these revolts as an Arab Spring 2.0. "Although the protesters' demands are now very similar, they are not considered a common struggle," Lynch writes in a recent article. The causes of the 2011 outbreak – inequalities, poverty, repression and lack of legitimacy of governments – remain valid in the region. And to the extent that authoritarian regimes do not give them an answer – and it is difficult for them to do so – their investment can bring only fictitious and temporary stability.