Argentina, a country in permanent recession | Chronic

According to a report by consulting firm Ecolatina, a 30-year-old Argentine would have spent 40% of his total life in recession and one in 20 in this situation. Comparisons only concern the Congo, Iraq, Syria and Zambia. In 2019, it will be the seventh worst recession in the world, according to data from the first quarter.

The entity that released the report yesterday, badured that these figures "They can only be compared to those in the Congo, Iraq, Syria or Zambia, countries that can hardly be called market economies.". He added: "Argentina is the most unstable economy in the world."

He also explained that "Although the engine of the recession of 2018 is similar to that of 2016", where there was a significant jump in the exchange rate, "the improvement of the activity would not have been in appreciation would change the pillar that found in 2017". In January and February, activity grew in seasonally adjusted terms, while the exchange rate remained close to the floor of the intervention zone. But the exchange rate move in March, 11% between points, accelerated inflation, according to the consulting firm, and "He cut the real wage and raised the key rate by drying out the green shoots of the first half."

The March data surprised negatively, which forced the entity to adjust its growth projection for the year. The 0.3 percentage point adjustment involved moving from a contraction of 1.4% of the year 's average to a 1.7% reduction.

If it is calculated per inhabitant, in this case, the fall would be 2.7%, leaving the Argentinians practically at the same standard of living as 10 years ago.

The contraction of 2.7% of GDP per capita makes Argentina the seventh country in the world with the worst economic performance according to the projections of the IMF, surpbaded only by Venezuela, Guinea, Iran, the Nicaragua, Sudan and Turkey.

Argentina's membership in this group is not only temporary, but is also part of the historical behavior of an extremely volatile economy. According to Ecolatina, not only is this volatility high, but it has also characterized the economy of our economy in recent decades.

The consultation badyzed that for the next presidential cycle, economic performance will depend on the elected government's ability to dispel doubts about the repayment of the public debt.

According to the current payment mechanism with the IMF, it is established that Argentina should pay 52 billion US dollars between 2021 and 2023 and it is expected that the country will not be able to use the market to incur this magnitude. This "would imply the need to rethink the payment schedule with the agency"and, depending on the agency, to the extent that the interlocutor is "a government willing to make concessions, with a modification of the pension system, in the labor market and able to negotiate laws with a good part of the Congress" it is expected that the IMF will accept a change in the payment structure that allows it to be delayed in time.

"Unfortunately, even if this were to happen, long-term growth would be compromised by the sharp rise in different dummy variables such as prices, wages and the exchange rate, which would fall, at best, in a significant, gradual manner.", expressed Ecolatina.