Argentina, among the countries that test the least: are there 4 times more infected than those reported?

The strategy is clear: as recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) from the onset of the pandemic, every suspected case of coronavirus should be tested, isolated, their close contacts traced and placed in isolation until they present symptoms – or not compatible. with the disease.

The countries that have used the SARS-CoV-2 detection tool the best are, coincidentally, those that have surfed the first wave the best. And vice versa, in countries that fared worse during the pandemic, there is clear evidence of a correlation with whether they tested little or less than expected.

This is because, according to health authorities around the world, Testing is the most important tool in the fight to slow down and reduce the spread and impact of the virus.

The debate over Argentina’s low testing capacity continued throughout the past year. And if the number of daily tests has increased considerably compared to 2020, specialists agree that “with a population of 45 million people and a viral circulation like that which exists, the number of tests per day should be several times greater than what is done. “.

“Testing remains the first line of communication on managing the pandemic for the obvious reason that identifying infected people and isolating them is what most limits the spread of the virus, especially as variants are circulating.”. The neurologist Conrado Estol (MN 65.005) recognized in dialogue with Infobae that “it is very difficult to trace all contacts, but even to detect only those infected and isolate the closest contacts which would greatly reduce the pandemic”.

The specialist with medical training in the United States, who was encouraged by the pandemic to collect data, analyze the world’s newspapers, break down curves and indicators, has become almost a mandatory consultation voice in times of coronavirus. For him, “the tests are always essential and no one disputes it; it is only by looking at the position in the world that we see that the Argentinian tests are insufficient ”.

In proportion of inhabitants, according to experts, Argentina should be above Chile or Uruguay, and this is not what the official figures reflect.

According to the daily report published yesterday by the Nation’s Ministry of Health, 75,392 tests were carried out in the country in the last 24 hours (of which nearly 32,000 were completed a little over two weeks ago). However, everything indicates that this is not enough.

“In the epidemiological world, there is an index called epidemiological correction or correlation, which measures the number of patients that can be detected by a diagnostic method compared to those who cannot,” began to explain the medical specialist. infectious diseases Roberto Debbag (MN 60253), who underlined: “The worldwide correction index was estimated to be 10/12, indicating that if X number of cases were reported, it should be multiplied by this index.”

And after noting that a few months ago, the city of Buenos Aires reported that this index was at 3 (that is, for every detected, there were three infected undetected), Debbag said : “If yesterday there were 20,000 cases in Argentina, and the correction index, being very benevolent, we place it at 4, that means that there are 80,000 cases and therefore 60,000 people who do not have were detected and did not receive the recommendation. isolate yourself ”.

Estol agreed with him, for whom “there are undoubtedly many more infected than detected; probably in the world there are four times more than what is counted with the tests in the countries, and even more in a country where few tests are carried out ”.

“There are three Fridays, when we were afraid with 12,900 infected people, more than 80,000 tests had been carried out, of which more than 15% were positive”, analyzed the neurologist. This rate was already worrying, and yesterday the positivity was very high and this only indicates that the tests were insufficient ”.

If analyzed per million inhabitants, Argentina performs 201,956 tests, according to data from the statistical site Worldometers, which ranks it 109th in the world.

Compared to its peers in the region, it is only in a better position than Brazil, which, in the midst of a second wave that has already led to a health collapse, is performing 133,825 tests per million population and is ranks 125, Paraguay out of 128 with 131,333 tests per million, Venezuela in 133 with 118,383 and Bolivia in 146 with 80,097, to name a few.

Neighboring Chile and Uruguay test 601,467 and 418,257 per million inhabitants and occupy positions 54 and 75 respectively.

Globally, one of the companies that performs the most tests per million inhabitants is Denmark, which with 4,744,507 is one of the most testing companies in Europe. Since the start of the pandemic, the Scandinavian country has recorded 234,931 cases of COVID-19 and 2,435 deaths.

Its positivity rate remains below 0.50%, which it will need by the end of May to complete the total reopening of its activities and formally decree control of the pandemic.

The positivity rate is the number of positive results out of the total swabs. This percentage indicates whether infected people are correctly found in the population. WHO recommends examining this variable to assess whether the definition of a suspected case and the number of traces of contact are sufficient and suggests keeping it below 10%. Today in Argentina, the figure is 27.68%.

How many tests do I need to do? For Estol, it is “impossible to predict, but an indicator in this sense is the positivity rate, the more it gives the idea that the majority of infected people are detected“.

“In the UK they are making 1,200,000 a day which is fabulous and they have very few positive cases,” said Estol, who analyzed: “If this data is extrapolated to the Argentinian population, it would be the equivalent of 800,000 per day. .; nobody asks because we don’t have the UK resources or logistics, but do 200 thousand if it was possible and they would escape less infected“.

“Today we should do 300,000 tests a day to be able to detect some of the 60,000 who escaped yesterday and try to lower the positivity index to less than ten and reduce transmission”, Debbag said.

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