Argentina doubled that figure in just over three months, but mortality fell

More than eleven months of pandemic and two million infected. To reach the first million, it took about seven and a half months. On the other hand, in just over 3 months, we have already passed the second. The coronavirus curve has accelerated and part of the explanation is that we have moved from a strict quarantine to a more flexible ASPO and then to DISPO.

From this last section, infectologists emphasize two positive data: that the “new” infected are younger and therefore serious cases and that the death rate has fallen; and that the tests have increased significantly, although we continue with less than recommended by WHO.

On March 3, 2020, the Nation’s Ministry of Health confirmed the first positive case of coronavirus in Argentina. It was about a 43 year old man only two days before his return from Milan, Italy. With the arrival of the virus, the lives of all Argentines began to change. Exactly 17 days later, a strict quarantine. First, celebrated by the vast majority. Later criticized by some sectors for the negative economic consequences.

“In the first few months, the daily cases were 100 or 200 infected. It was not until June that the situation started to change. On the 1st of this month, 564 positives were recorded, on June 6, we passed the 1000 infected for the first time and at 19 they reached 2060 ”, comments Eduardo López, specialist in infectious diseases at the hospital of Gutiérrez and member of the expert committee who advises the president.

The famous peak was recorded in October of last year. On the 16th of this month, the Healthcare portfolio represented 16,546 people. On October 19, Argentina passed the first million infected. On the 21st we arrived at 18,326 infected in a single day.

End of October the number has started to drop. As of the 30th of this month, 13,379 cases have been registered, a figure close to what was so far the peak of 2021. By January 7, we had 13,835 infected.

“The October figures coincide with the spread of the virus in the province of Buenos Aires and within the country. It was a month in which there was not a day with numbers less than 10 thousand infected», López notes.

The strict quarantine of the first months of the pandemic is surely due to the fact that the number of daily cases remained low during a first stage. Sure the same lines, flexibility of measures can help interpret, in part, the increase. Also the few tests that did not identify the infected and isolate them in time.

On October 19, when we passed the first million infected, 28,395 tests were performed. As of that day, there were 12,982 positive cases. That is to say that near the 45% of swabs were positive.

For the World Health Organization (WHO), a country tests well when it has less than 10% positivity (the ideal is to reach 3%). This means that out of 10 people, less than one should test positive. In October, we were far from having respected the WHO recommendation: almost half of the samples came from infected people.

This Wednesday, the day we reached 2 million infected, we have about a 15% positivity. “This shows that the tests have increased and that we are closer than expected, although it is still necessary to achieve what the WHO suggests,” adds López, who points out that “the death rate has decreased as the newly infected they are younger“.

The day of the first million infected: with 12,982 infected and 451 dead, the death rate was 3.4%. This Wednesday, with 7,739 positives and 109 deaths, it is 1.4%. Although the general average is 2.48.

López says looking at Europe to find out what might happen to us in the coming months isn’t necessarily effective either: cases have dropped a lot in summer and not here. According to laboratory work, the virus circulates best in cold weather, between 5 and 11 degrees, and above 30 degrees, it loses its viability. However, this has not been seen in Argentina, in part it is probably due to the fact that as the festivities approach and during the holidays, many people did not respect the basic measures ”.

According to him, there was certain behaviors which took place between the first and the second million and marked this stage: they are important events, meetings for Christmas and New Year, clandestine parties and mass meetings on beaches or other tourist destinations.

Looking to the future, he assures us that, to a large extent, we depend on vaccination. “In the United States, they vaccinate over a million people a day. In our case, we may not be able to reduce the number of cases but yes that of hospitalized people and occupied intensive care beds. The idea is that it also has an impact on lethality, ”he warns.

The increase in testing is one of the data that Lautaro de Vedia, infectologist at Muñiz Hospital and former president of the Argentinian Society of Infectology, emphasizes. “Seeking more and doing it actively is essential. Perhaps the increase in levies is also linked to the fact that in less than 4 months we have gone from one to two million, ”he says.

According to official data released by Worldometer, in terms of testing we are not doing well: we are in the 111th in the world ranking with 146 thousand per million inhabitants. Consulted on this, De Vedia points out that this is surely related to the fact that we were well below expectations and although we have improved noticeably, it will be difficult to reach the countries which are at the top of the list and which have done many early samples.

“The strict quarantine at the start made it possible to limit the circulation of the virus in give the health system time to prepare. However, at the start of the pandemic, little testing was done. In fact, it took a long time to fetch, scrub and isolate. Today, with 14% or 15% positivity, we are approaching what the WHO is asking for, ”says De Vedia.

According to infectologist Muñiz, the contagion curve should slow down: “On the one hand, because there are a lot of people who already had Covid 19 and who have developed antibodies. The other element is the vaccine which, little by little, we hope that it will limit the virus ”.

And he adds that it will be essential to reach the coldest temperatures with the vaccine risk groups.

For Miguel Dictar, head of infectious diseases at the Alexander Fleming Institute, the important thing is not the number of infected, but the number of severe cases and its impact on occupancy of therapy beds. “Young people are infected and it complicates fewer cases. Either way, we have intensive care patients. Most have co-morbidities, ”Dictar says.

He agrees with De Vedia that testing more led us to go from one million to two million faster than zero to the first million, although he also states that there was a change from community traffic related to social behavior. “In times of more restrictions, it spread less. If we relax the measures, it spreads easily, ”he said.

He says from now on we will not only have to see what is happening with the vaccines but also “with the new strains and how fast they are spreading.”

PS