Argentina has recorded 36,306 more deaths in 2020 than the average for the past five years due to the coronavirus

During the COVID-19 pandemic, although countries report the number of deaths from SARS-CoV-2 infection on a daily basis, there is another figure worth analyzing and that is the one represented by the calls “Excessive deaths”.

It is the total number of deaths that occur during a crisis – such as an epidemic, pandemic or disaster – in a given time and place, which is above the upper threshold of expected deaths based on time periods. previous ones.

The assessment of the total impact of the pandemic on mortality must include both its direct effect on deaths from COVID-19 and its indirect effect on deaths from other diseases. Experience and evidence in other countries suggest that surveillance of excess all-cause mortality can be used to explain the magnitude of this impact.

In Argentina, this total amounts to 36,306 excess deaths and the number is 10.6% above the threshold established for the period 2015-2019., according to a report presented today by the Ministry of Health of the Nation.

Tell specialists, “Focusing on excessive deaths from all causes also reduces the possibility of misclassifying deaths from COVID-19 and other causes, facilitating comparisons between countries.”.

During the presentation of the study in the country, carried out at the headquarters of the health portfolio and in which the Infobae, the national director of epidemiology and strategic information of the health portfolio, Analía Rearte, stressed the importance of analyzing excess mortality in the context of the pandemic. “To assess deaths from COVID-19, we have the Health Surveillance System (SNVS), but We also did a study on excessive deaths, which is done when there is an event that increases mortality. she explained. This higher mortality includes both direct and indirect deaths linked to the coronavirus ”.

“This is a descriptive study, where the series corresponding to all-cause deaths for the period 2015-2019, 2020 and the deaths corresponding to people with a confirmatory diagnosis of COVID-19 during 2020 were analyzed. for the Argentine population and a threshold is established above which excess mortality is determined», Added the manager.

And after making sure that between 337,091 and 342,341 deaths from all causes were expected in the country in 2020Rearte clarified, “The upper limit is the 75th percentile, the lower limit is the 25th percentile, and the median is the most likely expected value.

As we have seen, in 2020, two periods are identified in relation to mortality: From January to June, excess mortality was negative, recording 156,725 deaths, which represents 7.9% (13,510 deaths) below the alert threshold, while in the second half of the year the excess mortality was 25.6%, with 45,163 deaths above the threshold.

For the period studied, a total of 45,568 deaths from COVID-19 were reported to SNVS. Globally, these deaths exceeded the number of excess deaths recorded by 9,262 cases. And it has been observed that Until September, more COVID-19 deaths were recorded in SNVS than excess deaths, while between the months of October and December, the excess of deaths exceeded the notifications of deaths from COVID-19 in 6,593 deaths, which represents 23.2% of deaths beyond this period.

“We use historical data on all-cause deaths between 2015/2019, to which are added deaths from 2020, and we compare this surplus with that obtained in the SNVS”, defined the person in charge, who specified that “People who have died of another cause but whose diagnosis of COVID-19 has been confirmed are included in deaths from COVID”.

Meanwhile, Health Minister Carla Vizzotti has pointed out that although they can “count more deaths from COVID, it was a decision that was taken at the start of the pandemic”. “It is a notification decision and this study is very important to show the robustness of the notification system,” he said.

“When we have the mortality data by cause of death, we will know the reason for these excess mortality. – underlined as chief of staff of the health portfolio, Sonia Tarragona-. Today we know that even more deaths have died from or with COVID ”.

A la hora de analizar los datos obtenidos, Rearte considered that “conocer las muertes en exceso además es de gran valor para evaluar el sistema de vigilancia”, y en ese sentido, destacó que “los datos en el país son bastante reales y cercanos a reality”. “Vast majority of jurisdictions have counted excess deaths due to COVID-19 case notifications -it pointa-. We believe the reported death rates are consistent with what happened in 2020 in Argentina ”.

And while the vast majority of countries in the world had excess mortality, only a few, including Argentina, do not have unexplained deaths from COVID. “We are convinced that we are analyzing mortality very seriously and with very solid data,” he said. We were able to quantify the direct and indirect impact of the pandemic in Argentina; The health system was not saturated and these figures confirm it”.

In the pre-press conclusions of the article “EXCESS MORTALITY FROM ANY CAUSE IN THE CONTEXT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC. ARGENTINA, 2020 ”, we can see that when the year is analyzed globally, The COVID-19 deaths reported to SNVS (45,568) were higher than the estimated excess mortality (36,306 deaths above expectations), suggesting that the impact on COVID-19 mortality is greater than which is achieved as an indicator of excess mortality. This finding could indicate a possible replacement of other causes of death for deaths from COVID-19.

“What happened in 2020 is that deaths from other causes have tended to go down,” Vizzotti acknowledged, so the breakdown of the reasons for the deaths, which will be known later, will be illuminating in this regard. this regard.

What is the situation in other countries

Many studies of this type have been carried out in Latin America and the rest of the world: in an international comparative study of excess mortality compared to the COVID-19 pandemic where mortality for the year 2020 was analyzed In 29 high-income countries, all of the countries analyzed recorded excess deaths that year, except New Zealand, Norway and Denmark.

The greatest excess of deaths In absolute numbers, it has been recorded in the United States (458,000), Italy (89,100), England and Wales (85,400), Spain (84,100) and Poland (60,100), and it was estimated that in the 29 countries analyzed, there was an excess of deaths of about one million people. In many of the countries analyzed, it was observed that the estimated number of excess deaths greatly exceeded the number of reported deaths from COVID-19, indicating that determining the total impact of the pandemic on mortality requires an assessment of the excess deaths.

At the regional level, a study carried out in Brazil, recorded that between February and June 2020 there was an excess of mortality of 46% in four cities of this country: Manaus (112%), Fortaleza (72%), Rio de Janeiro (42%) and San Pablo (34%).

Finally, in a study that collected data on all-cause mortality in 77 countries, it was found that In those most affected by the pandemic, annual mortality has increased by more than 50%, while in others it has decreased by more than 5%, probably due to blockade measures that have reduced mortality from to causes not attributable to COVID-19.

Among the countries analyzed, the highest excess mortality values ​​per 100,000 inhabitants were found in Peru (290), Bolivia (260), Bulgaria (250), Ecuador (230), Lithuania (230) and Mexico (210). In addition, the study suggests that the number of deaths from COVID-19 worldwide could be at least 1.6 times higher than the number of confirmed deaths from COVID-19.

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