Argentina is the sixth country in the world where inflation is the strongest

It is clear from the Fund's statistics that Argentina ranks sixth in the world ranking of inflation. They are only 17 the countries of the world (less than 10% of the total) would see an increase in double-digit price indices. The first place is occupied by Venezuela, country in hyperinflation. Sudan is in second place with 56%. In Venezuela, the discounted reference price, average inflation in emerging and developing markets is estimated at 4.9%. In other words, and if the Fund's forecasts were met, inflation in Argentina would be about six times the average of developing countries.

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Previous reports from the Fund made very little mention of Argentina, partly because of the questioning of the figures established by INDEC during the previous government. However, on this occasion, references to the national economy are numerous and important, but it is not for good reason, It is attributed an important role in slowing activity in emerging markets, alongside Turkey, the two countries affected by financial turmoil.

The Fund warns against "Precarious recovery" in emerging markets and developing economies and baderts that the activity is moderate due to the deterioration in global financial market confidence in the second half of 2018, coupled with country-specific factors. In this case, it is where it makes explicit reference to Argentina and Turkey, a country which "An adjustment of their economic policies necessary to reduce financial and macroeconomic imbalances".

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The Fund's projections predict a contraction of the Argentine economy in the first half of 2019, as domestic demand slows under the impact of tighter policies aimed at reducing imbalances. But wait come back "to grow in the second half of the year while real disposable income and agricultural production recover after last year's drought. "In short, wait a 1.2% decline in gross domestic product for the current year and a 2.2% growth for 2020.

However, the body warns that "Risks to the economy are still considerable and their realization could lead to a change in investor preferences, a shift away from peso badets and pressure on the currency and the capital account". In this context, he believes that "the continued implementation of the stabilization plan as part of the IMF-supported economic reform program is essential to enhance investor confidence and restore sustainable growth that raises the standard of living. of all segments of society. "

As is traditional, the Fund emphasizes the need to realize tax promises. In this regard, he states that "it is essential to meet the primary fiscal balance targets of zero in 2019 and 1% of GDP by 2020 to reduce the need for financing and to avoid reigniting pressures on liquidity. ".

He also stressed that "the pursuit of the achievement of monetary objectives will be crucial to boost inflation expectations and restore the credibility of the central bank". And, as he pointed out in previous papers, he insists on the need for structural reforms of the economy. In this regard, during the last review of the Argentine program, the technicians insisted on the need to modify in depth aspects such as tax laws.

The Fund's statistics also predict that unemployment will remain at 9.9% of the labor force. the current year and the following year (up 0.7 compared to 2018). They also show a significant improvement in the current account balance of payments, which goes from a 5.4% red in the gross domestic product to 2% for the current year and 2.5 in 2020

The Fund hopes that the Argentine economy will recover in the medium term. In this regard, the report indicates that, for Latin America, growth should increase from 2.4% in 2020 to 2.8% in the medium term. "Financial stabilization and recovery in Argentina, where growth is expected to strengthen around 3.5% in the medium term".