Argentina realizes a surplus with Brazil for a second consecutive month – 02/02/2019

For the second consecutive month, Argentina shipped more products to Brazil than it buys, generating a trade surplus of US $ 114 million, compared to a red of US $ 478 million. EU in 2018.

In December, the surplus reached $ 261 million. Since 2014 that the country has not had two consecutive months in blue, according to an article from consulting firm Abeceb.

However, more than a success in increasing exports, this improvement is due to the collapse of imports (They fell 43.7% year on year), due to the local crisis. The most affected items were pbadenger vehicles, cargo ships, tractors and spare parts, according to a report by Ecolatina, based on data published in Brazil.

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For its part, Exports grew by 9.5%, benefiting from the recovery of the Brazilian economy. "To this is added a higher real exchange rate which, despite the downward movement of the nominal exchange rate in January, remains at a relatively competitive level," says a job in turn. d & # 39; Ecolatina. This is the eighth consecutive rise in exports.

The main export gains are in freight vehicles, wheat, gasoline and dairy products. Between wagons and wheat agglutinate about 40% of shipments in Brazil and have good prospects for 2019.

According to Abeceb, on the $ 592 million improvement in year-over-year trading (from the negative balance of $ 478 million in 2018 to the $ 114 million surplus this year), $ 523 million came from the lowest level imports and only US $ 60 million was due to the highest value exported.

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Last year, Argentina had a US $ 4 billion trade deficit with Brazil. In 2019, Ecolatina and Abeceb expect a bilateral balance in the equilibrium zone, with exports increasing by 10% and imports gradually easing their fall to close the year with a contraction of nearly 16% (Abeceb) and 20% (Ecolatina). .

"However, if Mercosur's flexibilisation materializes – a possibility mentioned by Macri and Bolsonaro in recent weeks – Argentina would lose its tariff advantage and with it our exports to the neighboring country would be reduced, thus affecting the results of the trade balance between the two countries, "warns Ecolatina.