Argentina recorded higher inflation in March than projected for the full year in more than 150 countries

Argentina recorded higher inflation in March than projected for the whole year in 75% of the countries of the world.

In addition, the 4.8% reported yesterday by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Indec) is the highest record since September 2019 (5.8% and 6.5% in September 2018), despite the fact that currently the government controls the dollar, the tariffs of the public services and a good part of the products which make up the consumer price index (CPI).

Argentina also has the negative toll of having the second highest inflation in Latin America and one of the highest in the world, behind the 5500% projected for Venezuela, 197% for Sudan, 99% for the Zimbabwe and 52.1% for Suriname by the IMF. Two other countries are said to be above Argentina: Lebanon and Syria, which in 2020 recorded increases of 155 and 140%, respectively. And, although the government is forecasting a 29% increase for this year, private analysts estimate it will reach 46%.

According to the projections of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which do not include Argentina – due to the ongoing negotiations of a new agreement – It is more than 150 countries or national territories belonging to the organization which will conclude this year with an inflation lower than 4.8% reflected in March by the Indec.

In the first stage are located Botswana, Brazil, Lesotho, Eswatini, Russia, with a projection which ranges from 4.7 to 4.5 percent. Then follow Sri Lanka, Honduras, South Africa, Nepal, Burundi 4.4 to 4 percent. Then, Armenia, Bolivia, Nicaragua, Vietnam, Georgia, Oman, Barbados, Seychelles, Hungary, Azerbaijan and Mexico from 3.9 to 3.5%.

Behind are Namibia, the Philippines, the Central African Republic, Papua New Guinea, Tanzania, Iceland, Poland, Cambodia, Chile, Chad and Moldova 3.4 to 3 percent. Eritrea, Guatemala, Emirates, Romania, Tuvalu, Burkina Faso, Paraguay, Saudi Arabia, Congo, Mauritius and Solomon Islands follow 2.9 to 2.5 percent.

Then Djibouti, Mauritania, Qatar, Saint Lucia, Vanuatu, Czech Republic, Jordan, Kuwait, United States, Cameroon, Germany, Norway, Serbia, Colombia and Latvia, Albania, Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Ivory Coast , Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, Indonesia, Malaysia, North Macedonia, Peru, Senegal and Togo with 2.4 to 2 percent.

A step down is Micronesia, Estonia, Grenada, Kiribati, New Zealand, Australia, Belgium, Canada, Mali, Austria, Dominican Republic, Ireland, Maldives , Timor, Barein, Equatorial Guinea, Lithuania, Sweden, Great Britain 1.9 to 1.5 percent. Behind are Finland, Hong Kong, South Korea, Macao, Holland, Saint Vicent, Thailand, Bosnia, Cape Verde, China, Costa Rica, Nauru, Slovakia, Denmark, El Salvador, France, Malta, Marshall Islands, Belize, Bulgaria, Spain, Trinidad and Tobago 1.4 to 1 percent.

Then there is Luxembourg, Portugal, Taiwan, Brunei, Italy, Morocco, San Mariano, Slovenia, Croatia, Cyprus, Ecuador 0.9 to 0.5 percent. Finally, there are Montenegro, Nigeria, Comoros, Israel, Kosovo, Gaza and the West Bank, Greece, Singapore, Aruba, Japan, Panama, Switzerland and Palau 0.4 to 0.1 percent, according to IMF records. Finally, Deflation is forecast for Tonga (-0.1%), Saint Kits and Nevis (-1%), Fiji (-1.1%) and Samoa (-2.5%).

In particular, in Latin America, 4.8% of Argentina was only surpassed by 9.1% recorded in Venezuela, according to the Observatory of Finances of this country, which is going through a situation of chronic hyperinflation. In the past 12 months it has reached 3687% according to IVF and the IMF expects it to end at 5500% by the end of the year.

Brazil recorded a rate of 1.04% last month and 6.2% in the past 12 months. in Mexico it was 0.8% in March and 4.6% last year; in Uruguay, it rose to 0.6% in March and 3.1% in 12 months; at Peru, was 0.7% in March and 2.6% in 12 months; at Paraguay there was a slight deflation of -0.1% and a rise of 2.04% in 12 months.

It is not news that we are one of the highest inflation countries in the world; what worries me is the trend, the lack of adequate responses, the desperation of action taken with old ideas (Lorenzo)

In the case of Ecuador, last month’s record reached 0.18%, with deflation of 0.8% in 12 months; at Bolivia, the figures were respectively -0.1% and 1.1%. Meanwhile, in Chile it reached 0.4% in March and 2.9% in one year and in Colombia the previous data was 0.5% and 1.5% in 12 months.

Causes and effects

The director of the LCG studio, Guido Lorenzo, held that “It’s not news that we are one of the highest inflation countries in the world; what worries me is the trend, the lack of adequate responses, the desperation of action taken with old ideas and the possible scarcity of politics. Controls only lead to that and we cannot afford to continue to fall behind in the global concert, ”he said.

In this regard, he said Infobae What “The economic cabinet is devalued and has shown a resounding failure in terms of inflation and has nothing to do with the pandemic. The public gave him a quota of confidence and he disappointed ”.

For this reason, “the higher the inflation, the more difficult it is to reduce it and the public naturalizes these problems; 10 years ago, an inflation of 20-25% seemed a scandal to us, now 50%; Where will we be in 10 years? He wondered.

Although the issue was calm at the start of the year, the inflation we’ve seen since October is linked to the giant issue last winter when the peso surplus hit around 30% (Borenstein)

Chief Economist of Econviews Andres Borenstein expressed that “Inflation of 4.8% is linked to certain seasonal condiments such as the 28.5% increase in education, but also to certain monetary and organizational factors.”

“On the monetary front, although the issue remained calm at the start of the year, the inflation that we have seen since October is linked to the giant issue last winter when the excess of pesos had reached around 30 %.», He told Infobae.

“Today, this excess of currency has disappeared, but the threat of a more monetary issue is latent. Expectations are also playing their game and it is no coincidence that when the gap widened, inflation accelerated. From September to this part, inflation was 25.7%, an annualized rate of 58%, ”he explained.

“As much as now the gap has given way, it bears repeating that inflation has lagged behind. This is partly why most economists do not expect inflation of this magnitude in the coming months. We see it high, but not so high, ”he said.

For this reason, Econviews estimates an inflation of 46% by the end of the year, “meaning that inflation will be at a rate of around 2.9% for the next few months”.

“It will be a little higher in April, but maybe it will be a little lower than in some months after,” he said. On the other hand, he affirmed that “the Covid also has an impact on local production costs, either because of the costs of transporting staff, replacing staff at risk, is added to inflation. And it must be said that inflation was not higher because there are many regulated prices which evolve at a speed much lower than the average ”.

The answer certainly does not lie in the control measures the government has adopted – and those it plans to take, with an emphasis on tighter controls, as happened between 2006 and 2015, when the inflation continued to rise, but did not hide it – but in the macroeconomic measures that, in dribbles, the minister is trying Martin guzman, apparently, with less and less influence in front of the Secretary of Commerce, Paula Español.

This is, apparently, a recreation of the pattern that was observed after the departure of Roberto Lavagna as Minister of the Economy at the end of 2005, when the real power of economic policy was taken over by the then Secretary of Internal Trade, Guillermo Moreno, who saw the ministers pass Felisa Miceli, Miguel Peirano, Martín Losteau, Carlos Fernández and Hernán Lorenzino, until the arrival of Axel Kicillof, who regained control and moved Moreno, although he failed to control inflation and continued to manipulate INDEC data until the end of administration of Cristina Kirchner.

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