Argentina's debt is already close to 97.7% of the country's GDP and is the highest in the region.

Argentina is the most indebted country in the region. According to the latest data from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), the proportion of the public debt of Argentina reached 77.4% of GDP in the middle of last year. In 2015, this percentage was 53.3%. Thus, it has overtaken countries like Brazil, Costa Rica and El Salvador.

However, this percentage of 77.4% includes only the first disbursement of the loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), $ 15,000 million, in July 2018. But if you take into account the $ 13,400 million more than they were filmed in October, Argentina's debt level is more than 80% of GDP, as clarified by ECLAC in its report entitled "Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean" and published last week.

Despite this, ECLAC data are insufficient. EThe level of debt is close to 100% of GDP when the last disbursement of December of last year is also added. The final account in December 2018 was 97.7% of GDP, according to data from the consulting firm LCG.

"It's the highest percentage of the last 15 years, without a doubt, the risk is that there's a lot of dollar debt, 75% of the debt is in foreign currency, which leads us to think if we can really pay our public debt if the income is not generated in this currency. Some countries do not have this difficulty, they issue debts in national currency and at rates similar to those of their product, "said Guido Lorenzo, economist at the consulting firm.

The economist also warned that the duration of our country's debt is short, less than 10 years, which means the market is constantly asking the government to demonstrate that it has liquidity. "I do not think Argentina is going failure to pay. But it is implicit that a restructuring and therefore a limitation will have to be made in order to develop an economic policy, "added the economist.

Another fact to be taken into account is the relationship between debt and exports, because a large part will have to be returned with real dollars. According to Lorenzo, the ratio of external public debt to exports is around 200%, its highest level in at least 15 years.

"Other countries have external debt levels relative to reserves, for example very low compared to our country. In Argentina, despite the recomposition, the ratio of debt to international reserves has doubled in the last five years, "he warned.

The initial agreement with the IMF in the amount of 50 000 million USD was added in September last year to a second aid of 7 100 million USD. equivalent in total to 12% of GDP. "For its part, Argentina is committed to applying a severe fiscal adjustment aimed at achieving a balanced budget balance for 2019. As a result, the gross national public debt has increased significantly in the second quarter of 2018 to reach 77.4% of GDP, figure 20.3 points of GDP on the end of 2017", described CEPAL in its latest report.

This increase – the highest in the region – is mainly due to the first disbursement of the IMF, which amounted to USD 15 000 million, which added to a strong depreciation of the peso, higher interest rates and lower GDPamong other factors, detailed the report.

At the regional level, the public debt of Latin America reached for the third quarter of 2018 41% of GDP, which is 1.5 percentage points of GDP more than the end-2017 figure. "Although the region has recorded an improvement in the primary fiscal outcome, the macroeconomic environment could increase the cost of debt and push the interest payment and the level of public debt in 2019, "warned CEPAL.

Based on the figures of the third quarter of 2018, behind Argentina, the countries with the highest level of public debt are Brazil, with a 77.2% GDP and Costa Rica, with a 52.5% GDP. For its part, Paraguay has the lowest public debt in the region, 16.2% of GDPfollowed by Peru (20.4%) and Chile (23.7%).