“Argentine vaccine”, the official obsession against the Covid which comes up against the urgency of doubling the daily doses

Past 115 days Since the start of the vaccination campaign in the country and the schedule, facing the next winter, has not rested. The lack of doses and the inability to have more it quickly contrasts with a certain official obsession: to have an “Argentinian vaccine”. The results of this alleged life drive immediately reversed their sign, with a good chunk of the population out in the open in front of the coronavirus.

The first bet was for the AstraZeneca vaccine “made in Garin”, whose active ingredient is manufactured a few minutes from General Paz and is packaged in Mexico. This production, promised eight months ago in the form of a balm, should still recover with its blessings.

Today, last week, the government renewed its enthusiasm for another national achievement: the “Sputnik VIDA”, which would be packaged from June in the factory owned by the Richmond laboratory in Malvinas Argentinas, although the promise of full production is inside 14 months.

To these initiatives of the pharmaceutical industry are added still germinal scientific developments. One comes from the University of San Martín and Conicet (same factory as the popular jugular Atom Protect), whose vaccine is in the preclinical phase and has been named “Arvac Cecilia Grierson”.

This vaccine, presented publicly as a sovereign strategic plan Faced with the challenge of the pandemic, he has a curiosity: its name is the same as that of another vaccine – against equine viral arteritis – that Pfizer introduced in Argentina ten years ago. To the new, they added a tribute to the country’s first doctor. It is projected for 2022.

There are more local investigations in progress in La Plata and in the Litoral, plus a fourth in Cordoba with the French and Brazilian collaboration: potentially interesting jobs this could give the country the possibility of having its own patent. The global vaccine shortage is unlikely to be a problem by then.

While all of this is happening there is nine vaccines which have already been approved worldwide, four of them in Argentina. The coldest time of the year is approaching and uncertainty is growing as to the percentage of the vulnerable population that will be vaccinated against Covid-19 by June 21.

This Sunday the Sinopharm vaccines have started to arrive again, but they will not be used to expand the vaccine base because they will be intended for second dose, since no one really knows for sure whether half a diet is enough.

The government’s counter-move, compared to what the Federal Health Council had decided at the end of March, becomes another stumbling block with the aim of vaccinating more people in less time. As announced, with Sputnik V and AstraZeneca arriving, the plan to postpone three months the second dose.

What remains, already compromised the stock of the Chinese vaccine, is to wait for the arrival of the batches of the Russian with more frenzy, as long as Europe’s growing flirtation with the Gamaleya Institute does not end up “intercepting” this production along the way. Finally, it is essential that AstraZeneca starts shipping 22.4 million doses contracted and largely paid for by Argentina. There is no specific delivery date yet.

President Alberto Fernández said on Saturday: “We are waiting for AstraZeneca to start fulfilling its commitments in Latin America.” And he pointed out that he speaks personally “with all laboratories and presidents of the world to try to get more vaccines. “

Campaign against the clock

There are 55 days left for the winter. Argentina vaccinated last week at an average rate of 83,996 doses every 24 hours. This is an improvement over previous months: if the average is taken from February, the daily injections applied fall to 60 thousand.

In the country, it remains to be vaccinated 8.3 million people at risk, made up of 5.2 million people under the age of 60 with co-morbidities (only 312,000 have ever received a dose) and 3.1 million people over the age of 60 (4.3 million have been vaccinated).

At the current rate of vaccination, all of these people would finish being vaccinated on August 5. It’s a month and a half after the start of winter. To reach this station with the entire population at risk vaccinated, it would in principle be necessary to apply 71 thousand additional injections per day.

This quantity implies a volume 84 percent top the current one, in order to achieve the necessary score of 155,000 daily doses. If the captive volume of Sinopharm is subtracted and essential uninoculated workers are added, the essential increase would approach the 100 per cent.

The pace of the campaign is still unpaired. Judging by the numbers released by the Vaccination Monitor, it’s difficult to consistently maintain a high bar. Each week there are usually three days with many inoculations, two with a medium level and two more with a low level (usually on weekends).

For example, on Sunday April 18, just 19 thousand doses, while the previous Monday, 168,690 had been injected. The record was set on April 7, with 233,934 doses. The day with the lowest rating was February 14, with 52 nationwide (just over two per province).

If a high intensity could be maintained all week, it could surely reach June 21 with a little over 8 million people risk of remaining immune. Obviously, more vaccines are needed.

The National Vaccination Plan in principle only considers vulnerable groups, therefore the number of doses contracted to date does not take into account 15 million adults between 18 and 60 years without underlying diseases. The fate of these people can only be determined when the government concludes new contracts with laboratories. Or the Argentine vaccine is a fact.

In this context of uncertainty, the long-awaited “Collective immunity”. The timetoherd.com site offers an interactive tool to find out how many days it would take each country to achieve this. In the most optimistic scenario, in which this instance would arrive with 60% of the population vaccinated, Argentina would take 411 days. That is to say June 2022.

When comparing the indicator between countries, in the region only Chile and Uruguay they would obtain collective immunity before Argentina, with 61 and 70 days respectively. Brazil would take 508 days and Colombia, 545. In North America, it would take 112 days in Canada and the United States, 59.

In Europe, Spain is still 151 days ahead; Great Britain, 70; France, 172; Italy, 162; Sweden, 135; and Germany, 154. In Asia, Israel is the fastest country: it has 27 days left; Saudi Arabia should wait 207 days; and China, 333. From the effective public management The degree of correction that adjusts these forecasts to reality will depend on each nation.

PS