assessment of economic pessimism and mistrust of vaccination

If the two variables which will define the legislative elections of the year are coronavirus vaccines and the economy, Alberto Fernandez he has reason to be on the alert. Nail new survey accessed Bugle shows a high level of mistrust with regard to the health vaccination plan and a balance of pessimism about the future of the activity.

The study is from Management and adjustment, a consulting firm with many years in the policy market and with clients on both sides of the gap. Between April 23 and April 30, he conducted a nationwide investigation into 2200 cases, with a margin of error of +/- 2.1%.

The report begins with the measurement of retrospection: “How do you think the economic situation of the country compared to a year ago? ” the results are very bad, taking into account, among other things, the latest indicators of consumption, wages and inflation.

– The 68.9% talk about a negative present (45.2% choose “much worse” and 23.6% “worse” than a year ago), against only 14.8% for the opposite (5.6% say they are “much better” and 9, 2% “better”).

But even more worrying for the government, it is surely a further decline in economic expectations, a key point: if people believe the future will be worse, they tend to cut back on spending, even when they have the money to spend it.

– The 60.9% of people consulted are pessimistic on what will happen (37.9% think the country will be “much worse” in the coming months and 23% “worse”) vs. 18.9% optimistic (11.2% “better” and 7.2% “much better”).

It is worst clue in the series it shows M&F since October 2017. Pessimism is even above the most difficult times for the economy of the management of Mauricio Macri (October 2018 and early and late 2019).

The concern for the economy is reflected again in a few tables below. It happens that although the increase in cases has increased the health fear of catching coronavirus (34.7%), concerns about the consequences on the pocket are significantly greater pandemic (53%).

Another alert for the national government appears with the vaccination plan. There is a paradox: after the doubts that had been raised from the start – and that the opposition fired -, The predisposition of Argentines to be vaccinated has grown steadily against covid. According to M&F figures, 75.5% are “willing” to do so.

But the increase occurs when doses are missed and while mistrust persists regarding a “fair and equitable” distribution of these vaccines. 53% maintain between “little” (18.8%) and “no” confidence (34.2%) in the national government as to the effectiveness and transparency of this central program.

The peak in immunization negativity (around 60%) occurred between February and March, when the VIP beneficiary scandal became known. In April distrust has gone down, but it is still high.

In other settings, the president had the consolation: without standing out, he showed improvements compared to March.

– On the one hand, the Global discharge approval increased from 35.1% to 36.7% and disapproval fell from 55% to 53.1%.

– More symptomatic was the improved management of Covid, which again had a record in favor: 49.7% approve it against 47.2% who disapprove it.