banks expect a stronger withdrawal of fixed terms

Argentina



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Since October, the exit of dollar investments has fallen by 30%, but the entities fear that the trend will be reversed by political uncertainty.

On Monday, August 12, less than 24 hours after the release of the PASS result, a large portion of investors and investors went directly to the banks to withdraw the dollars they had deposited. It was a day of fury in local markets, with reds in excess of 50% in some stocks and a shot of more than 30% in the value of the US currency.


The remaining $ 208 million in private sector deposits marked the beginning of a withdrawal that no one really knows when it will stop.

Although, since October, the central bank has managed to reduce the tap by nearly 30%, with some obstacles to the circulation of dollars abroad, in the city, they fear a further acceleration of the trend after the presidential elections.

"All the steps we are taking are preparing us for the worst case scenario," she says in one of the five largest banks in the system. "We are no longer giving foreign currency credits, we are recovering more than 40% of what we borrowed and we are hyper dollars liquids because we know that production can speed up"they add.

According to the latest data from the plant in September, the liquidity of the financial system in this currency amounted to 50.6% of deposits, including nearly a quarter in cash certificates.

"There are differentiated visions," says the managing director of another smaller but very active entity on the foreign exchange market. "There are many who believe that if Alberto Fernández wins eventually, the exit of deposits can be accelerated after the elections and others see another scenario.It will depend a lot on the early signs that he gives," added the head of the bank, which, from STEP lost nearly 35% of its deposits in dollars. As it happened to the entire sector.

"If the statements of the winners of the election are read, there may be a new outflow of investments.It should be kept in mind that most funds are in sight. come from companies, they need them and they will not take it, but the retail part can expand overnight, "they warn from another bank.

"It all depends on what they will do or say," they add.

Strictly speaking, according to BCRA data, of the $ 21,024 million in private foreign currency deposits, 76% are current accounts, mainly in savings banks. And of the $ 4,975 million that are fixed term, 57% are 30 days.

"Most investments come from individuals, companies usually have more chequing accounts to have available to their customers at a given time, or to pay bonuses, taxes, etc.," they explain. the city.

The only data provided by the station in this regard is the amount of deposits, both on demand and in the future, amounting to more than $ 1 million, sometimes higher than that of SMEs or averages. companies little dollarization power

"The first few weeks after the PASO, the strong exit was that of the companies, much less than that of the retailers, but the stock of the business segment was reduced by almost 50%", they indicated in the one of the front line banks

In that sense, of the estimated US $ 15,500 million, about US $ 2,850 million is for deposits of more than $ 1 million and, in the long run, 26% exceed it. "There are usually a lot of individuals with a high purchasing power," they analyze at the local bank 's money table.

Eliminate the fear of "corralito"

In fact, since October, a measure of the Central Bank has managed to reduce by 30% the outflow of deposits, which today represent an average of 54 million US dollars per day, against 74 million for the last 10 days from September, also per day. . This is below average for the whole month of September, when bleeding occurred at a rate of $ 250 million per day.


The monetary agency made this decision with the A6799 communication, approved on September 30, in which, in addition to discouraging bond purchase operations to create the financial loop, it limited the outflows of dollars abroad. Strictly speaking, it provided that natural persons may carry abroad the amount of greenbacks that they desire, but only when the destination is an account of the same holder in a bank.


In this way, it prohibited transfers to financial accounts, similar to the main accounts existing in the country and those generally offered by local brokers when they provide the service of opening abroad.


"We felt that the exit after the slowdown of the BCRA had turned to the financial accounts," explained one of the largest foreign banks of the local financial system. "The one who already had an account abroad already owned it.This is not that people go to Uruguay and open it, there must be a tax address.And less likely to open it in other countries now, "they add.


The same trend is observed in another of the front-line banks, this time in the local capitals, where they noted that until October most of the outflows had been made by transfer to foreign financial accounts.

"There were hardly any queues in the agencies, nor people who took the money to leave them on the mattress or in the safe. Most drainage operations have been made by wire transfer abroad, "they explain in the entity and add:" now by money order that is less than half of what came out in September. "

At the bank, but liquids

Another trend observed since the beginning of this haemorrhage is the search for liquidity of savers, beyond having left their dollars in the bank. "One of the things we're seeing is that there's a lot less renewal of fixed deadlines," said one director.

"In my bank," he adds, "we renew about 40% of the deposits (in dollars), the rest goes to the current account, they are not like before, but they remain liquid."

In just over two months, from August 12 to October 15, $ 11.5 billion of banks were disbursed, or 35% of the pre-PASS stock. The daily peak of departure was Friday, August 30, the day the foreign currency stock was reduced by US $ 1.1 billion, a prelude to the exchange rate that ultimately created the BCRA this weekend.


This Sunday, September 1, while the technicians of the agencies were putting the finishing touches to the new regulation, Guido Sandleris met on the second floor of the entity the main bankers of the country. At a meeting that lasted less than 20 minutes, he promised them to bring Federal Reserve tickets of up to $ 20,000 million and asked them to provide dollars. to all their branches.


The aim was to dispel the fear of a possible corralito which, even though at that time it was practically impossible to happen, had repercussions for the retailers, even more after a day unable to function in the shops. mutual funds after the default announced. by the Treasury.

Now While the banks have shown that "the dollars are" and have managed to bring some peace of mind to their customers, none of them sing of victory. "It depends on everything: what they say in the same election Sunday speech, whether they put a Minister of Economy more respectable or not. Anything can happen," they say in a bank

The good thing, says the entity's managing director optimistically, is that of the remaining $ 11.5 billion, more than half must be in safes or on the mattress.

"If the new president gives him some certainty at some point, these funds have to be reinvested in the financial system," he adds.

However, no one predicts a soil. Some think that the stock could fall to the level of 7.5 billion US dollars that was during Kirchnerist's stocks, others think that the drip could be stopped sooner. Whatever the case may be, days go by in the city and banks are already prepared for the worst.

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