BBC: What is the United States looking for in Venezuela and why is it acting now?

"In Venezuela, there is a provocation personally directed by the American empire (…), there is no doubt that Trump intends to organize a coup d'etat in the country."

With these words, Nicolás Maduro accused the US government on 24 January of easing the current political crisis in Venezuela, in which its legitimacy to hold the presidency of that country was questioned.

This Tuesday, in the state of the Union, the most important political speech of the year pronounced by the President of the United States, Trump reiterated his support to Venezuela.

"We support Venezuelans in their humble search for freedom."

Maduro's "socialist policy" has turned the richest country in South America into a state of extreme poverty and desolation, the US president said.

The confrontation between Venezuela and the United States This was triggered by two events.

First, the beginning of Maduro's second presidential term after a so-called "fraudulent" election by Washington and the European Union, and then the swearing-in of the Speaker of the National Opposition, Juan Guaidó, as "president in charge" of the country.

The deputy, who was recognized almost immediately by the White House as a legitimate leader, quickly rallied to the support of the Lima group (with the notable exception of Mexico) and on Monday gained support from several countries of the European Union.

Maduro, who claims the legitimacy of his election and enjoys the support of countries like Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, Nicaragua or Bolivia, has accused the opposition of trying to give him a coup and announced the termination of diplomatic relations with the United States. .

How the United States and Venezuela have gone from partners and allies to enemies

Washington has further increased the pressure and, for the first time, imposed sanctions on Venezuelan oil sales to the United States, which is the main source of revenue for the South American country.

The unprecedented step revealed that Trump White House was ready to go where no one had dared to challenge the Maduro government.

But what exactly are the United States looking for in Venezuela?

Democracy or oil?

Officially, the involvement of the US Government In this crisis, he seeks to obtain "the restoration of democracy in Venezuela", for which Trump announced that he would use "all the economic and diplomatic weight" of the first world power.

The Maduro government, however, accuses it of having imperial ambitions and wanting to take control of the country with the largest proven oil reserves in the world.

"Confession on the part: John Bolton confirms that the coup is oil," wrote last week in a tweet Jorge Arreaza, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Maduro, referring to certain statements of the journalist to the chain TV show on national security Business

"Venezuela is one of the countries of what I call the troika of tyranny, which would make a big economic difference for the United States if we force US companies to invest and participate in the development of Venezuelan oil capabilities, Venezuela would be good for the people of the United States, "said Bolton.

But some experts doubt the weight of this motivation.

"The petroleum argument is not convincing," Carlos Malamud, principal researcher in Latin America at Madrid-based Real Instituto Elcano, told BBC Mundo, adding that the resource has been around since the beginning of the year. the late president came to power. Hugo Chávez and that, despite this, Washington has long avoided interfering in the Venezuelan crisis.

"The United States was the main buyer of Venezuelan oil and it is a big paradox: the so-called Bolivarian revolution could be achieved thanks to the American dollars, without which it would have been very difficult for the Chavez project to proceed. so "he says.

In addition, he adds, through the exploitation of oil and shale gas, the United States has become much less dependent on imports and, in any case, from the point of view of the If the markets are good, it happens in the Middle East than what happens in Venezuela.

Neither wall nor Maduro

Malamud considers that Washington is a decisive player in the tough resistance that Maduro faces to stay in power, but warns that this is due to the convergence of several factors.

Among these, there is the arrival of AN to the presidency of Juan Guaidó, the mobilization of the international community who was frustrated to see the failure of all the negotiating efforts to restore the functioning democratic institutions in Venezuela and the migratory wave of Venezuelans, it gives a regional dimension to the crisis of this country, because millions of its citizens flee mainly to South America.

The expert believes that more than these factors related to the decision of the White House to increase pressure on Maduro could weigh lightly the next presidential elections of 2020, during which Trump should represent.

"His flagship project, the construction of the wall on the border with Mexico, is totally bogged down." With the control exercised by congressional Democrats and the coming to power of López Obrador in Mexico, his expectations regarding the progress of this The Venezuelan crisis, faced with a weakened Maduro, will allow him to continue to mobilize his most loyal sectors, "he said.

Benjamin Gedan, a member of the National Security Council of the White House under the Obama administration and now adviser to the Latin American program of the Woodrow Wilson Center, a Washington-based research institute, points out that it's hard to understand the motivations that underlie the White House.

"President Trump is not a defender of human rights or democratic institutions, but in this case he made the decision from the very beginning to carry out a very tough policy in the face of the Venezuelan crisis" , did he declare.

Indicates that this may be due to electoral reasons. "It is possible that the Trump government is looking for a crisis that can be resolved to achieve significant success before the elections, but more than that is the Florida issue, where there is a community of Venezuelans and other very Latin Americans. favorable to Trump's tough policy against the Maduro government, "he says.

Gedan stresses that the current act can also be influenced by the fact that the humanitarian and migratory crises in Venezuela have worsened over the past two years.

The specialist also reports an ideological conflict.

"For the Republican Party, Chavismo has always been a powerful enemy in the region and, beyond that, the Trump team has a lot of experience in the Cuban record and the alliance between Havana and Caracas generates a lot of rejection of the Mature government, "he adds.

Peter Hakim, president emeritus of the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington-based research center, sees this political factor as a determining factor.

"This can be explained by the immense influence of the inflexible advisers of Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela on the definition of Trump's government policy towards Latin America. spoke about Senator Marco Rubio, John Bolton and now Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, "he says.

Stresses that the President of the United States now has excellent relations with Rubio, a senator from Florida, a very important state from the electoral point of view.

"I do not think Trump will take the Venezuelan dream away, he's a transactional president, and in that case he does not get much out of it, but he's getting some benefit from the American groups he's with." is bound, "he says.

"He is following a policy with which his closest advisers have engaged ideologically and politically for years.They now have their chance.I guess they succeed in Venezuela, it seems more and more that the. next step is to press Nicaragua and Cuba, "he predicts.

BBC