BCRA against 12-A: relieves or any artillery for action

he central bank You can have Monday "one day of action" to warn operators based on the result of the STEP. If the electoral verdict coincides with the expectations of the market, it is expected that the place of exchange will be calm, although still subject to the international scene in the face of the recrudescence of the trade war between the United States and the United States. United and China.

In this case, they foresee that the monetary entity will pursue the strategy deployed up to now to contain the episodes of monetary volatility, that is to say operating in the futures market and validate higher interest rates. The Leliq rate was 63.70% yesterday, registering a weekly rise of 2.70 percentage points. With a favorable outcome for the government, badysts believe that it could drop a little, but not a lot, as inflation remains high. In a negative scenario, it could return to 70%.

With regard to the dollar, if the electoral balance is unfavorable to the ruling party, operators anticipate that will be "under a lot of pressure" They therefore believe that the BCRA may have to call next week the sale of reserves on the spot market, a tool authorized by the IMF at the end of April and guaranteeing the peace of exchange, but not yet used.

Chart: global recession risk increases in the face of trade war

Some speculate that the BCRA could "let the dollar run a little, and after evaluating the market reaction, I would play this card. Juan Salerno of the Compbad Group said that "the BCRA should first act on the futures contracts, it can not intervene very quickly by selling reserves, because if the demand is huge, it requires a lot more dollars than it does not sell hard by the minute, it will not be able to contain it, then able to choose to let the market depreciate a little, then start reducing volatility. "

Mauro Mazza, of Bull Market Brokers, said that "if Alberto Fernández gets 42%, Monday will be a day of action, will let a little (to the dollar), see how the market reacts "but in this hypothetical scenario" it is likely that the day should intervene in the spot market.

For Mazza BCRA "has the back to reduce volatility"and calculated that "he still has about $ 1.8 billion of positions bought on futures contracts and can sell about $ 3 billion, which gives him a firepower of about $ 4 billion." , $ 8 billion to intervene on futures ". Diego Falcone, of Cohen SA, said that if there was a negative result for the ruling party, "we have to find the dollar balance with the fact that you do not have Fernandez to win the elections, the BCRA will not be able to stop the dollar in dollars. " 45 ".