Between bluf and external intervention | The relati …

PageI12 In Venezuela

From San Antonio, border with Colombia

Something is not appropriate to observe the situation on February 24 at the Colombian-Venezuelan border. There is a normality outside the scenario that contrasts with international declarations and Venezuelan law. The distance is such that a question is posed clearly: either it is a huge bluff, or an international intervention is in preparation.

"The days of Maduro are numbered," said Mike Pompeo, US Secretary of State. Marco Rubio, a Florida senator, tweeted a smiling image of Muammar Gaddafi, then lynched him, and Miguel Pizarro, of the Primero Justicia party, said at a press conference alongside other forces of the opposition that he lived "in the end". a last step ".

Following the declarative line, the badault can no longer go back. The doors of negotiation will not open, "we will seize power, there is nothing to negotiate, there is no equality between two forces that can be understood to see how to fix that, "said Pizarro, and everything seems to be turning to the international front. With which objective? Juan Guaidó tweeted the line in which they will work on Saturday night: "Formally ask the international community formally so that all options are open".

The hypothesis of military intervention appears more and more openly. Julio Borges, leader of the Lima group on the right, tweeted: "We will demand an escalation of diplomatic pressure and a resort to force against the dictatorship of Nicolás Maduro." The group meeting will take place today in Bogotá, where Guaidó arrived yesterday. US Vice President Mike Pence, one of the leaders, as well as John Bolton and Elliot Abrams, will participate in the Venezuela operation.

What will come out of this meeting publicly? Maduro's declarations of condemnation, accusations of all sorts of violations, further diplomatic encroachments and economic blockades can be expected. That would be what we already know. The question is what could be new, from the ever-present point of view that one thing is what is affirmed and another what is prepared under the table.

After the 23, it seems that the intervention is the only letter they can play to follow what they claim. Presumably this was not the preferential case, that the first plans were a break with the Bolivarian National Armed Forces (Fanb), a collapse-explosion effect triggered by economic attacks, a series of actions organized to create even more troubles. One of these has not achieved its goal, explained the Venezuelan Minister of Communication, Jorge Rodríguez, referring to the attempt to badbadinate people with tanks of badault the 23 in the morning.

With regard to the Fanb campaign, the right has sought to oversize the images of the resigning members. According to Pizarro, the number would have exceeded 100, while, according to government sources, there would be 15. The impact was the impact of the media, because it is not a member with a capacity of internal driving , to generate breaks that can lead to an attack on the presidential palace Fanb factor has not yet appeared in the coup so far, which shows the falsity of dozens of titles, statements and badyzes announcing impending fractures.

At this point, after more than a month of self-proclamation of Guaidó recognized by Donald Trump on Twitter, the reversal strategy is at a crossroads where it lies: or advance in the last letter that is the intervention, or be a new bluff, this time drawn from the highest levels of the United States.

What's a bluf? One way to play, which is to make your opponent believe that you have more than what you have, go up the rounds, and expect the other to be back for not reaching the end point. Bluffing is discovered when you finally have to show the cards. Is Trump and the Operation Venezuela team ready to run into a bluff?

Do they have an internal opportunity to agree on the intervention? Could it be through Colombia? Are the Colombian elites ready? Several questions can be linked to try to answer these questions.

Perhaps the various central episodes, such as February 22nd and 23rd, were part of what was conceived from the very beginning: the intervention. That's why they are so sure, that's why there's a sequence of actions, accusations, with the last – which has already been shown with mounted images – that argues that the Maduro government would have burned trucks with humanitarian aid, which would be a crime against humanity. Was it all this time before a scenario that will come and has always been the main one? This will be known as more statements and deeds are given.

The days are long in Venezuela, at the border, in the event that the former left-wing presidential candidate, Gustavo Petro, who has never expressed his sympathy for the government of Nicolás Maduro, l & # 39; 39; described as a "de facto war" declared by Colombia. He also said that "Duque and Trump's strategy is a violent invasion". The time to show the cards seems to arrive. We'll see if it's a bluff.