Between guilty and victims of the opposite wind (Carpe diem) – 04/05/2019

A prosaic vision would explain the EU's conflictual British divorce, imagining that the UK, as well as individuals, happens to be the moment of senility has come, with modest incontinence and even difficulties in finding the door of his house when he dares to abandon it. Such a soul image would prove to solve the question of why British political leaders repeat again and again the formulas with which you lost while hoping to obtain a different result. It's Einstein who explained the craziness with these behaviors.

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The Brexit has failed in Britain in a labyrinth that will cause permanent damage regardless of the resolution taken. But what makes this case more interesting, and that is why it should interest us, is its familiarity with precariousness with other equally damaging political phenomena of the planet. In a few days, the IMF and the World Bank will publish their global forecasts that anticipate a slowdown in the global growth rate. The WTO has already indicated that trade has fallen to its lowest rate since 2016.

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If this onion is defoliated, a series of concatenated processes is observed. British divorce it is a local product of ultranationalism which has been reinforced in response to the austerity programs imposed on the continent by Brussels. This economic pressure, which has worsened since the 2008 crisis, he has reinforced the frustration of the voters and the multiplication of the European right movements, xenophobic and islanders who have mounted on this frustration. Embraced by the nightmare, the main banner of these medieval armies is precisely the British Brexit. The brake that records the global economy also finds its origin in the policies of these new sovereignist directions with the North American version at the top.

Experts point to the pattern that stuck to the unpredictability of the UK as well as the brutal trade war that Donald Trump's US brought to China like the main runners, although not the only ones, of this bad step. The protectionism that defines these island visions and the repudiation of globalization are the links that close the chain around the necks of its promoters and takes away the rest of the planet. The effects already exceed the imagination. Last week, the Turkish autocracy of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan suffered the biggest electoral catastrophe in its history, with the loss of the capital Ankara and perhaps Istanbul which it controls since 1994. The reason: the worsening of the world economic crisis which erodes with the devaluations the currencies of the emerging countries, read it in particular, but also the Brazilian real and the Argentine Peso.

Just a few hours ago, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde revealed that the global economy continued to lose momentum in the first quarter of the year, so the outlook was deteriorating. , 5%, according to estimates, for 2019. "Growth will be the weakest we've seen in recent times," he said. It's not just the Brexit and the trade war that are coming. Trump has also deepened other traps on this path. The US economy It was boosted by the 2017 tax deductionbut at the cost of an increase in spending which translates into a 77% increase in the deficit in the first four months of the current fiscal year. This red will be 6% against PBI at the end of 2019, the largest in the history of the United States outside the war or recession.

The other "ticking" that badysts perceive is the debt that, because of these excesses, already exceeds 22 billion US dollars, more than the annual US product. It's Trump's legacy. Markets are usually didactic. The phenomenon that repeats itself from the inverse yield curve of the economy means, in simple terms, that investors are betting more on short-term bonds than long-term bonds. Unlike normal. It's a sign of recession that says the market does not believe in the future. Carpe DiemDo not trust tomorrow.

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The social counterpart of these macro-numbers explains how the crisis takes shape in the political dimension. A report from Eurostat, the statistical office of the EU, found that more than five million people had found a job since the end of 2013. But four out of five people were part-time professions with low or very low incomes. The employment boom in Europe is "low quality", according to Merril Lynch. In the US 40% of workers earn less than $ 15 an hour and about 5% of full-time employees earn the minimum wage or less. These urgent data were not revealed by a central union, but by JP Morgan Chase's president, Jamie Dimon, in a letter in which he ardently defends capitalism and deregulation, but warns that "40% of Americans do not have $ 400 to deal with unexpected expenses, such as a medical bill … More than 28 million Americans do not have health insurance, "he said.

These numbers are a drum in the head of the Republican leadership and Trump himself in preparation for the 2020 elections, the worst of the two years badyzed by international organizations. This contradiction explains the fervor of the White House to mitigate the consequences of the self-imposed shock with China and to give a positive signal to the markets before the arrival of the ballot boxes. But, as for Brexit, any step would be circumstantial now. Although Washington may approach commercial positions with Beijing, it is not possible to expect the same result in the dispute between leaders in high technology and artificial intelligence, which is the real reason for this confrontation.

USA The Chinese giant group of communication, Huawei, was mainly pressed to seek to reduce the international market where it had already gone from Apple to the second place. The main goal was to remove its leadership in 5-G strategic technology, but also to reduce Beijing's potential for robotics, advanced medical equipment and quantum computing. But the persistence of Trump in the confusion of enemies and allies has broken the essential unity with Europe what this strategy required. Washington punishes with tariffs the mainland's steel and aluminum sales and is under threat of tariff blockade on its auto exports to North America because the president The magnate considers that these sales violate the national security of his country.

There is no better certainty than the evidence. Beijing has just accepted with restraint Italy, one of the most industrialized countries of the G7, on its ambitious Silk Road. This step was encouraged by the 5-star Movement, an anti-system force that constitutes the coalition that governs Italy. The measure was publicly attacked by the other part of the alliance, the Liga right Matteo Salvini. But this rhetoric was meant to calm American allies.

Paradoxes of the scene, we know that the neo-fascist leader encouraged the agreement to deepen its differences with Brussels and because of the huge need that Italy has for the Chinese market. These differences are smaller than it seems. The European capital announced a few weeks ago that it would not follow in the footsteps of the United States. and will not veto Huawei's participation in the development of 5-G technology on the continent.

If there is a final agreement between China and the United States should be interpreted in the glbad of these controversies, patients, advanced the People's Republic. Both economies must end the trade war, a success that Trump must win before the elections and show, as his own work, the favorable impact of the economy. The Chinese kingdom, which does not face the electoral challenges, will certainly not contest these trophies. However, these silences should not be underestimated.
Copyright Clarín, 2919