Bolsonaro bet by Macri | Argentina

The integration between the countries of the Southern Cone has come out of its endless lethargy to manifest a vitality that, suddenly, seems suspicious. The axis of this unexpected resurrection is the relationship between Brazil and Argentina. Or rather, the idyll between Jair Bolsonaro and Mauricio Macri. The most striking novelty is that the extinction of Mercosur as a customs union, diagnosed until exhaustion in recent years, not only did not occur . We are now debating whether it would be desirable to deepen it until it becomes a monetary union.

The intellectual author of this change is Paulo Guedes, Brazil's finance minister. On the other hand, the political impulse belongs to Bolsonaro, who went to Buenos Aires last Thursday and Friday. The goal of the Brazilian president was to demonstrate that there was no limit to integration with Argentina. With Macri Argentina.

The project to create the "peso-real", common currency between Brazil and Argentina, was formulated by Guedes in front of Argentine businessmen last Thursday, while he was accompanying Bolsonaro. The reaction was staggering. The Brazilian Central Bank issued a statement, written the same evening in Argentina, explaining that the technical process of this operation had not started yet. The officials of this institution confessed in front of friends: "There is no project, there is no project, there is no team there. study, there is nothing ". Clarifications are included. The proposal brooded new tensions in Brasilia. The president of the Chamber of Deputies, Rodrigo Maia, allied to whom Bolsonaro treats with the same coldness as an opponent, ironizes in a tweet: "Really? Will they devalue the real? The dollar to six reais? what inflation will come back? I hope not. "

It is true that there is not even a project for this monetary event. But it is also true that Guedes has been thinking about it for more than a decade. In a column published by the magazine Time On October 24, 2008, he has already defended the creation of the real peso. This meant, as now, that the world would be organized by currency areas: the dollar, the euro, the yuang.
Guedes badumes that the real could be the embryo of a Latin American currency. The path towards this goal, he explained in this article, would accelerate the reforms under way in Brazil, particularly in tax and pension matters. Those who still did not dream of becoming finance minister have developed this argument several times in similar writings.

This ultra-liberal economist has not yet noticed that, having become an official, the disclosure of his waking dreams now had another impact. At a side meeting at the last meeting of the International Monetary Fund in Washington, Guedes commented on his project with his Argentine colleague, Nicolás Dujovne, who shares with him the predilection for fiscal austerity, deregulation and l & # 39; opening.

Dujovne reported on this conversation with Macri. The Argentine government was going through days of anxiety because of the volatility of the currencies. Macri wanted to immediately take advantage of this idea: it could be the open door to exchange with the Brazilian Central Bank to strengthen the reserves of the Central Bank of Argentina. In Brasilia, they reacted with astonishment. Until they understand that the long term, for Macri, are the elections of October. And to win them, it is necessary above all that the foreign exchange market be calm.

The plan of a regional currency is, according to Guedes itself, a theoretical horizon tinged with a glimpse of national pride: Latin America should be organized around Brazil, as the only one in the world. Europe around Germany. And this construction must promote a modernization of the regional economy according to the rules of the market.

Macri agrees with this orientation. For example: the main theme of his conversations with Bolsonaro was the need to speed up the free trade agreement with the European Union. This badociation would be especially hampered by the ultra protected Brazilian wine sector. Despite the endless frustrations of this eternal negotiation, some are still waiting for a breakthrough from the meeting of ministers to be held on the 26th in Brussels.

In the immediate future, however, Guedes' monetary proposal has another meaning. He explained this to a few friends on Friday afternoon, already back in Rio de Janeiro: "Before going to Buenos Aires, Bolsonaro said it bluntly:" We must do everything we can to help that Macri be reelected. "

In Buenos Aires, Bolsonaro was explicit: "There is no room for another Venezuela in Latin America". Translated: Kirchnerism does not have its place. The extreme polarization that characterizes the electoral dynamics of almost all democracies in the region leads to international alignment. By supporting Macri, Bolsonaro overcame the emphasis that Lula da Silva or Dilma Rousseff used at the time to support the Kirchner.

Foreign policy, instead of modeling national interests, is organized in a spirit of faction. Bolsonaro's pbadion for Macri then opens a worrying question: what would happen if, in October, the Argentineans took the power of the formula Alberto Fernández-Cristina Kirchner? Today, the dispute is linked. It is therefore possible that Mercosur will regain its lethargy. Guedes' dream depends on this event. The room, literally, is in the air.