Bolsonaro is favorite, Trump was also favorite | Opinion

From Rio de Janeiro

A year ago, Trump was one of the favorites to be re-elected President of the United States. He reigned supreme in the polls, while his opponents fought over who would face him, divided, with low percentages, to be able to challenge him.

A situation similar to that which currently exists in Brazil. Bolsonaro liquidated his opponents in the field of the right, with violent and rapid blows and found himself alone as a possible candidate of the big businessmen, the media and the right-wing parties.

Meanwhile, the judiciary, providing one more service to the oligarchies of Brazil, is slow to judge Lula and restore all his rights, so that he can be the candidate that unifies the opposition against Bolsonaro. Polls show Bolsonaro leads with a comfortable majority, while a series of opposition candidates split their preferences, all with enormous difficulty in unifying and channeling the far-right president’s great potential for rejection.

The surveys, which often consult a thousand people in Brazil, put so-called inevitable situations in mind. No one thinks that if Lula were included in the polls, he could replicate the situation of 2018, in which all the consultants indicated that he would win all the opponents in the first round.

It also does not take into account the fact that the surveys, in addition to being limited in the number of interviews, are carried out by telephone, in a very cold and artificial situation, in addition to excluding a large part of the population. the poorest of the consultation. . But above all, it ignores the fact that the investigation is one thing, the campaign is another. What matters most to Lula, because of his extraordinary communication skills, especially with the weak majorities in the country, whether as a candidate or as a support of a candidate – which was lacking in Haddad in 2018-.

Bolsonaro didn’t even have Trump’s honeymoon, with the growth of the US economy and the creation of jobs, which usually leads to the re-election of a US president. The pandemic has shaken the country, starting with the economy, which entered recession and generated unemployment. At the same time, the negative discourse on the pandemic has generated a very unfavorable climate for re-election.

The Democrats, for their part, rallied around a moderate candidate, who knew, from the start, that he had parts of the Republican Party itself, unhappy with Trump’s positions. Most importantly, he channeled all forms of rejection of Trump, promising a government that reactivates the economy and firmly fights the pandemic, firmly opposing the scenario Trump represented.

Another negative aspect of the polls without Lula is that they lead other opposition candidates to believe they could be the leftist candidate against Bolsonaro. It is clear, in the first place, that the dispute will be very hard, it is not just any candidate who can face it. Second, that Bolsonaro will have a strong flow of support, which must be thwarted by popular support, as the PT candidates have always done, rooted in the northeast of the country, but now also in the outskirts of the major cities of the southeast and south. A performance that only Lula, candidate or mentor of a candidacy, can have.

A victory by a wide margin will also be essential, as the Bolivian and Ecuadorian experiences show, to overcome the judicialization processes that have been imposed in these countries as well as in Brazil.and under which elections are held in these countries. To come out of this process requires the unity of democratic forces, strong popular support and great leadership that conveys the security of the ability to defeat Bolsonaro and to govern successfully, as the PT has managed to do.

Bolsonaro may be a favorite, but he won’t be if the left is guided by the criteria of the experiences of recent electoral victories: Argentina, United States, Bolivia. Bolsonaro, like Trump, will show himself as a sniper, attacking only old politics, corruption, as if he is not practicing them openly. He will be the victim of the failure of his government. It is clear that in 2022 the economy will still be in recession and with high unemployment. The effects of the pandemic will continue to be felt, with the precarious supply of vaccines and even with the current victims of the coronavirus.

A referendum that shows that there is an alternative to Bolsonaro: a country with economic development, income distribution and employment, with vaccines for all, with democracy. This will be the decisive scenario for the defeat of Bolsonaro and the victory of the democratic forces.