Bolsonaro suffered two defeats in 2020 | Opinion

Jair Bolsonaro was able to count on special conditions to survive 2020. The quarantine interrupted the dynamic of popular mobilizations which had intensified at the end of 2019, in the form of rejection of the government. The year ended very badly for Brazil, with a recession of the economy, which had not progressed at all during the year, with a projection of a deepening of the recession in the second year of government. Twelve million people were unemployed and 38 people were in a precarious situation.

The second year was marked by the pandemic and quarantine, which neutralized the mobilisations, because of the conditions restricting the movement of people. For a while, the protesters managed to demonstrate on the weekend, with good support and popular repercussion. Then, the absence of mobilizations which allowed the expression of the various forms of rejection of the government, reduced the pressure on the government and allowed it, by inertia, to survive.

The government took advantage of the pandemic to grant aid – which it wanted to be 200 reais, but which ended up being approved by Congress at 600 reais – with which it managed to gain popular support, which made up for the loss support with the break with judge Sergio Moro. . At the same time, Bolsonaro has established alliances in Congress to defend against impeachment. Polls have started to show nearly 37% support for the government, although all polls have also indicated rejection of specific government policies.

As the government did not maintain aid, because neoliberal economic policy does not allow it, the population suffered the blow and Bolsonaro’s popularity waned. At the same time, The government suffered two major political defeats: Trump’s non-re-election to the United States, with which Bolsonaro lost his inspiration and his great international partner. Which, at the same time, means a new government in the United States that will certainly put great pressure on the Brazilian government, at least on environmental issues, with the protection of the Amazon in the first place, and human rights. man. The government’s international isolation will intensify, promoting changes in rhetoric and even ministers in areas that will become critical in the relationship with the Biden administration.

The other big defeat came from the municipal elections, in which virtually all of the candidates backed by Bolsonaro lost., with particular weight in the defeats in São Paulo – where he tried to penetrate – and in Rio, with the non-re-election of mayor Marcelo Crivella, his great ally. It was clear that Bolsonaro’s support is not transferred and is relative, as the support expressed by him weighed negatively on the nominations.

In the meantime, if Bolsonaro had not worn himself down with the lack of a government policy against covid, the emergence of vaccines and the continued government denial – which not only does not give importance to vaccines, but also delays their access-, wearing away the image of the president, who appears to be responsible for the delay in the arrival of vaccines in Brazil.

At the same time, the forces that support the government, even if some are not part of it, are starting to consolidate their candidacies for 2022. PSDB Confirms Name of São Paulo Governor João Doria; the DEM, by television star Luciano Huck; The PSD says it will have its own candidacy. While the left, in particular the PT, retains its national strength and its preference to play the second round of 2022.

The very harsh economic and social effects of the pandemic on society will mark 2021 and possibly even part of 2022, preventing Bolsonaro from having a favorable situation in the country. The issue of vaccines will dominate at least the first half of 2021, if not the whole year, with the government’s failure to cope with the challenges it poses.

The government has the parliamentary support of Centrão and military personnel, who increasingly occupy essential spaces of the state. The penetration of Abin – Brazilian Information Association – as a new SNI -, in all sectors of the state, and a figure calculated on more than 6,000 military personnel in government posts, gives an idea of ​​the magnitude of the phenomenon. But neither guarantee popular support for the government, support that tends to wane throughout 2021.

This, added to the prospect of a major crisis to come, combining the economic depression, the deep social crisis and the public health crisis, would make 2021 a crucial year, which could lead to the replacement of the government or to a negative projection. for Re-election of Bolsonaro. This would confirm the specter of Trump’s defeat, which scares the government.