Bolsonaro’s popularity drops and Lula regains space

The economic decline sweeping through Brazilian society has hit the most vulnerable sectors hardest. If at the end of last year the president Jair Bolsonaro had succeeded in consolidating an important electoral baseThanks to subsidies for the most popular segments, that base just melted in May. The head of state, who wants to be re-elected for another term in 2022, cannot reverse a setback that began in mid-January, given the evidence of a total lack of management of the health crisis.

A poll by Datafolha, the most prestigious electoral consultancy, revealed a considerable shortening of the president’s electoral band: appears, in the first shift, with 24% of voting intentions; while not long ago, he accumulated no less than 37%. Such a loss of “supporters” of Bolsonarism did not collapse into a vacuum. Now fallen into the hands of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who regained the political powers that had been taken from him in 2018, when he was detained on the orders of former judge Sergio Moro, also a former justice minister in the current far-right government.

Bolsonaro rejection greater among Brazilians with the highest level of education

Lula appears, according to Datafolha, with 42% of the preferences already in the first round and in a possible duel with Bolsonaro in the second round he would triumph with a 55% advantage.

Of course, like any early survey, since there is one year and four months left before the elections, its results can vary considerably in the time left. This is what the leader and his ministers are betting on. ANDAt the Planalto Palace, they are convinced of a rapid recovery of the economy, with an increase in the supply of jobs and a return of consumption to the levels of the end of 2020. Only, unlike last year, this time Bolsonaro does not have the “seduction” that the financial assistance to families, of 120 dollars, deposited in the savings banks of 85 million Brazilian citizens, exerted on it. ‘electorate. From now on, the perimeter is much more limited both in amount, 30 dollars, and in number of beneficiaries: 46 million.

This aid, which borders on the very poor for those who receive it as their only income, did not allow the president to retain his poorest voters. At the same time, his negative and reckless vaccination policies, as a solid strategy to fight Covid, have eroded the support of the middle and upper classes, which he had in 2018. It is no accident that the rejection of Bolsonaro is greater among Brazilians with a higher level of education. There are 51% of Brazilians who openly declare their anger against the presidential figure. It is also true that Lula has a negative account, but the repudiation in her case is much lower: 36%.

Electoral support from the former PT chairman, who led between 2003 and 2010, added new segments to those who remained loyal to the Workers’ Party.

However, it happens that the electoral support of the former president of the PT, who led between 2003 and 2010, added new segments to those who remained loyal to the Workers’ Party. On the one hand, he has regained his favoritism among low-income Brazilians. This is not a detail: athat the citizens with the lowest incomes represent more than half of the electoral population.

The political world does not really like such a polarization. And they are eagerly seeking the emergence of the “third way”. That is to say, this very centrist and almost apolitical candidate, with enough claws to compete with Bolsonaro or, failing that, with Lula. So far, none of the current profiles meet this condition. An emblematic case is that of the former minister and former judge Sergio Moro, who led the investigations into the alleged corruption of Lula, now canceled for “bias” against the head of the PT. If Moro presented himself as Bolsonaro’s alter ego, he would fall behind the president with 30% of the voting intentions.

In this context, former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso changed his mind compared to 2018, when he did nothing to support the intellectual Fernando Haddad, political scientist and former mayor of São Paulo, who competed in the second round of the last elections against Bolsonaro. . Now he is ready to press the lulista button; Among other things because, as he admitted, his party, the social democracy of Brazil “has lost its attractiveness and can no longer be a real factor of power”. In his statements to the Brazilian media, he asserted that “the PT is an important party; and I’m not afraid of it. Bolsonaro represents a future that does not fascinate me at all. So if there is no third way, I will vote in Lula ”.

* Author from Brazil 7 days. From São Paulo, Brazil.