Bonds dropped and country risk again exceeded 800 points

A negative day for Argentine badets in the market, the country risk resumed and returned to exceed 800 pointsafter three weeks of flotation below this level. Withdrawals of Argentine bonds were framed by the publication of a report by one of the most influential financial makes noise among investors.

Bloomberg spilled in a report that Argentina is the "economy the most vulnerable in the world"For that, he took into account data such as the level of inflation, the debt maturities, the external deficit and the international reserves of the Central Bank.So, the country has overtaken nations like the Turkey in this ranking – who suffered the year after a crisis similar to that of Argentina, South Africa and Egypt.

The report, known since the opening of the stock market, has prompted comments and criticism from operators in the sector. the city Buenos Aires, privately and in social networks. Some investors said the figures provided by the financial institution were not updated, such as the external deficit (which Bloomberg at 2% of GDP) and that of the next repayment of the debt on the agenda.

On Wednesday, the prices of the main Argentine bonds exploited by investors decreased: they dropped to 2.3%. This caused an increase of nearly 30 points in the country risk up to 811 units. A value that has not been reached since the first day of July.

"The growing risk of policy change in Argentina could represent a threat for market access, "said Gersan Zurita, vice president of the agency Moody's, adding that" this would create significant pressure on the liquidity situation of the government and would increase the opportunities for debt restructuring over the next two to three years. ".

Financial market badyst Juan Manuel Carnevale said before TN.com.ar that the qualification of the country as "the most vulnerable in the world" answers to the fact that the big investors are wary of "the debt repayment capacity that Argentina has. "

"The market is paying close attention to the weight of the debt in relation to GDP, but especially the ability to repay, and what comes after the elections will require a broad consensus and renegotiation of the debt. delay and if corrected by a devaluation, the level of debt will be even higherconcluded Carnevale.

The dollar rose again on Wednesday and exceeded 44 pesos, the highest level in four weeks. Over the past ten days, the weight has depreciated by 3%. The Central Bank has maintained its presence in the dollar futures market over the past few days in order to keep the devaluation expectations in the coming months.

"This Wednesday (it was recorded) a real demand (in dollars) for position change hedges." Banks and companies have lack of supply Despite the rise in the wholesale dollar, grain exports are barely $ 100 million a day at this time of the month and despite the slight increase in Leliq, "said Fernando Izzo, an badyst at ABC Mercado de Cambios.

The BCRA has several tools to deal with a possible rebound in demand for dollars which breaks the balance of the currency in recent months. On the one hand, interventions in the futures market, for which it has a large margin of action. On the other hand, he trusts the planned ticket offer until the end of the year, between what the daily Treasury sells and the agricultural colonies. And finally, direct sales of bookings.

In international markets, two of the major Wall Street stock exchanges set new historical records in the middle of the earnings season. Two meetings that will take place in the coming days could change the global financial mood. This Thursday, the European Central Bank will meet and next week the US Federal Reserve. They could then define possible interest rate cuts in Europe and the United States, which will trigger a renewed appetite for investors in emerging markets such as Argentina, looking for better returns.