Boris announced his Freedom Day despite warnings | July 19, lift all precautions, despite the Delta strain

From London

In the midst of an intense controversy, Prime Minister Boris Johnson ignored scientists’ warnings and announced the total exit from containment on July 19. “There is only one reason why we are considering this step when in other circumstances we would tighten the containment further. The reason is the success of the vaccination program, ”Johnson said.

The Prime Minister noted that 45 million adults received the first dose and, of these, 33 million were fully vaccinated (the UK’s total population is 67 million). “This is the highest proportion of any European country except Malta. We hope that by July 19 all adults will have the first dose and two-thirds will have a full vaccination, ”he promised.

The Prime Minister explained that another reason was the impact of vaccination on reducing the number of hospitalizations and deaths. “To make this decision, we need to balance two risks. The risk of disease that the vaccine reduced, but not eliminated. And the risk of continuing with restrictions that affect people’s economies and their well-being and mental health. If we don’t do it now, that we have summer to ourselves, when are we going to do it? It should be done in the winter when the virus has an advantage, ”Johnson said.

The Prime Minister’s new plan for living with covid includes the following, among others:

· Intensification of the vaccination program so that in September all over 18s receive both doses and that a booster starts in the fall for the most vulnerable.

· Limits on the number of people meeting in homes or on the street are removed. The total reopening of all businesses, including nightclubs, will be authorized. There will be no limit to participation in sporting events, concerts or visits to nursing homes.

· The need to wear a chin strap and the social distance of one meter are eliminated.

· The government will no longer advise working from home so that businesses can plan a return to work.

· Bubbles in schools are eliminated.

Just in case, like the one who opens the umbrella, Johnson has urged the people to exercise their personal responsibility for these measures as much as possible. Not only that. The prime minister said the final decision would be made next Monday, leaving the door ajar for an unlikely reversal if there was a dramatic outbreak of cases, which is not in any epidemiological projection in a week’s time.

What does the data say?

The third lockdown in England since the start of the pandemic began in January. A month later, with the immunization program underway, the government committed to a four-step schedule that would be governed by “data, not dates” (by data, not by dates – dates – from. calendar). Johnson’s announcement refers to moving from Stage Three (limited restrictions) to Stage Four, the long-awaited ‘Freedom Day’, but it comes at a time of escalating cases due to the impact of the strain Delta.

The number of contaminations is the highest since January in the midst of the crisis and continues to grow: around 25,000 Sunday, 10,000 more than the previous Sunday. The difference is that in January the vaccination program was in its infancy; it now has a coverage horizon for the entire adult population in September. The other two data – hospitalizations and deaths – are much lower than at the start of the year, which would indicate a mismatch between infections and serious illnesses or deaths.

The government recognizes that with the lifting of the restrictions there will be an increase in cases, but believes that it will be contained by the effectiveness of the vaccines which would prevent an overflow of the response capacity of the National Health System (NHS). In large sectors of the scientific community, they do not think the same thing.

One of the strongest voices on the risks involved in this shift in strategy and message was Professor Susan Michie, Director of the Center for Behavior Change at the University of London and a member of the Government’s Policy Advisory Subcommittee. public. the transmission is like building a factory of new variants at extreme speed, ”he said.

Stephen Reicher, a professor at the University of Saint Andrews and a member of the government’s behavioral science subcommittee, criticized the ambiguity of the government’s message. “Chinstrap is a critical mitigating factor in areas that are not well ventilated and where there are a lot of people. The message that is sent generates a lot of confusion, ”he said.

Among the doctors, there was the same concern. “We know the chin straps work. I will continue to use them and advise others to do the same, ”said Dr Nikki Kanani, director of primary care at the National Health Service in England.

But there were minority voices in the science sector who were in favor of openness. “People who have both vaccines are much less likely to get infected and, if they do, they are less likely to transmit the virus. We are finally going to find a balance with this virus as we have with all endemic respiratory diseases, ”said Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at East Anglia.

We don’t talk about mutations

The Prime Minister did not say anything about another of the criteria that should govern the transition to the new phase on July 19: the new mutations of the virus. The emergence of the Epsilon variant, which apparently resists antibodies in vaccines approved in the UK and EU, is the latest red flag of the eleven mutations identified by the World Health Organization so far.

According to a study published in Science Magazine, this variant has spread to 34 countries, mostly European, but also to the United States, its place of origin, South Korea, India and Japan. In Denmark 37 cases have been identified, in Germany 10, in Ireland and France 7, in the Netherlands and in Spain 5, in Switzerland 4, in Norway 3, in Sweden, Finland and Italy 2 and in Belgium 1. Despite these data , the Prime Minister noted that the end of the compulsory quarantine for people returning from vacation from European countries would be announced very soon.

The current border control system is divided into three colors: red, yellow and green. Passengers returning from countries at red lights must undergo a mandatory 10-day quarantine at a hotel designated by the government. Those with around forty yellow light in their own homes. Green lights don’t have to quarantine. One of the reasons the Delta variant wreaked havoc in the UK was the delay in banning flights to India.

In that sense, it would make it look like the UK and Europe are repeating the behavior of last summer, when they opened up the economy and social circulation, and generated the groundwork for the second wave. The difference today is vaccines. The possibility of variants like Epsilon is a red flag that few governments want to hear.