Brazil: a year after the vote, the favoritism of Lula da Silva grows | As the image of his rival, President Jair Bolsonaro, collapses

A year after the elections in Brazil, the former leftist president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is favorite before Jair Bolsonaro, but analysts do not rule out a road with shocks and even a tense result, as happened this year in the United States.

Bolsonaro down

The far-right president, whose popularity has plummeted in recent months, would get 26% of the vote in the first round of October 2, 2022, against 44 for Lula, according to a survey by the Institute Technical sheet, September 17.

Bolsonaro, 66, has a harshly criticized record, especially for its management of the pandemic – nearly 600,000 dead – and an economic deterioration to the height of almost double-digit inflation which feels in the pocket of the Brazilians.

Its popularity has fallen to 22%, his lowest level since coming to power in 2019, and against him he also a hundred requests for dismissal and several judicial inquiries, among others for procrastinating by not denouncing an attempt at corruption in his government in the purchase of vaccines.

But this former army captain, an ally of the most conservative sectors, such as the food industry, is not sunk, according to Olivier Stuenkel, Professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV). “Whoever is in power has a series of strategic advantages: above all the possibility of increasing public spending,” he said. “Corn the time left to reverse this negative scenario is decreasing.“.

Lula, with low profile

Although his candidacy has not yet been formalized, Lula, who enjoys strong support from the popular classes, has established himself as a favorite since the courts quashed his convictions for passive bribery and money laundering in March. . But the 75-year-old former president who spent 18 months in prison and would run for a third term with the Workers’ Party (PT), is keeping a low profile for now.

“Lula is aware that he cannot expose himself too much because he will be very attacked”, explains the political scientist. André Caesar, from the consulting firm Socket. “Antipetismo is a strong party”, which covers key and conservative sectors such as business, he points out.

For Stuenkel, the former president is preparing a conciliatory strategy, “similar to that of (Joe) Biden, who sought to project himself as a centrist, agglutinating the entire democratic field, and not just being a left leader “in front of Donald trump.

The third way

At the same time, a host of minor candidates, such as the governor of Sao Paulo, João Doria (center-right), seek to represent a “third way”, which brings together those who want neither. “It is not realistic. The ‘neither nor’ occupies a giant ideological space, from left to right”, then it would be impossible to agree on a candidatesaid Stuenkel.

Caesar believes, however, that the third way could come to fruition in the event that Bolsonaro’s unpopularity or legal issues separate him from the race, a very uncertain option for now. Neither Bolsonaro nor Lula aspire to another opponent, analysts say.

The ex-unionist allows Bolsonaro to keep the enemy of the left alive, which he associates with corruption and “communism”. For Lula, it is safer to rely on the attrition of the ultra-right facing a candidate who brings together Bolsonarists and anti-ethists, according to Michael freitas, professor of law at the FGV.

Hit or no hit

In his pulse with justice, Bolsonaro even hinted at the possibility of a coup and on September 7 he called marches in which its most radical supporters openly chanted undemocratic slogans.

And although he himself subsequently ruled out the possibility, he threatened to reject the results if he lost the election, alleging possible “fraud”, as the former US president did. Bolsonaro “copies Trump a lot”, says Freitas.

For Stuenkel, the far right could try to promote acts of violence, as Trump did before his supporters invaded the Capitol on January 6. “Unlike whathe commitment of the armed forces and the police to democracy in Brazil is certainly less“.