Brazil advances with the reopening despite the threat of the Delta variant and warnings from specialists: “It will be explosive”

As the death toll from the coronavirus begins to decline in Brazil, renewed optimism led state governors to lift restrictions, football fans are starting to return to the stadiums, and the mayor of Rio de Janeiro has said that the famous New Year of the city is back.

But a question hangs over these first signs of recovery: What will happen when the Delta variant of COVID-19 spreads through the largely unvaccinated country which is already the second country in the world with the most deaths, with 547,000 deaths?

The variant increases the case and the deaths in the world after a period of decline, and the World Health Organization (WHO) should become dominant in a few months. The race is on to vaccinate as many Brazilians as possible.

Successful countries, such as UKhave seen contagions skyrocket in recent weeks, but without a corresponding increase in serious illness or death.

Experts fear that Brazil will not be able to do the same in time. “it will be explosiveSaid Gonzalo Vecina, professor of public health at the University of Sao Paulo. “There will be a new wave. We open too much ”.

The Brazilian Ministry of Health recorded until Friday 140 cases of the Delta variant, including its three most populous states, and 12 deaths. Analysts say the numbers are great under reporting due to lack of testing and genome sequencing.

President Jair Bolsonaro He has long opposed restrictions and downplayed the risks of COVID-19, often saying infection is inevitable. Lawmakers have started investigating their administration’s handling of the pandemic, particularly why authorities appear to have delayed procuring the vaccines.

The Minister of Health, Marcelo Queiroga, says the best way to stop the variant is to vaccinate more people, but insists Brazil must resume their economic activities.

“We have the capacity of hospital beds available and we will live with this pandemic until we can control it for good. “Queiroga said Wednesday. He stressed the importance of knowing if each person infected with the variant has already been vaccinated once or twice.

British researchers found that two doses of Pfizer O AstraZeneca were only slightly less effective in blocking symptomatic Delta disease, compared to previous variants. More importantly, the vaccines have been extremely effective in avoid hospitalization.

But a single dose has been shown to be much less effective than against other variants. This led Britain, which had previously lengthened the interval between doses, to speed up the doses. second injection. There is little information on the effectiveness of other vaccines against the variant.

This is worrying for Brazil, where the 17% of the population is fully vaccinated and 44% have received the first of two injections. The vaccine AstraZeneca accounts for almost half of the vaccines administered, the Chinese Sinovac more than a third and Pfizer most of the rest.

The Governor of São Paulo, João Doria, is one of the leaders who are considering the possibility of get a callback to those who have received two doses of Sinovac. At the same time, he allowed stores would open later and increase customer capacity.

The government of Pernambuco it also eased restrictions on bars and social events on July 5, the same day the northeastern state identified its first two cases in the delta.

The governor of federal district, Ibaneis Rocha, authorized 15,000 spectators attended a football match this week, the first match of a professional club attended by supporters in Brazil since the start of the pandemic. Shortly before the game, the district health secretary confirmed cases of the Delta variant in the region.

“The information that the rulers pass on to the people is that the pandemic is under control”said Ethel Maciel, epidemiologist at the Federal University of Espirito Santo. “We shouldn’t be talking about control or that the pandemic is coming to an end when less than 20% of people are fully immunized and more than 1,000 people die every day.”

Israel Yes Netherlands They have largely reopened their doors after vaccinating most of their citizens, but have had to reimpose some restrictions after new spikes in infections. The Dutch Prime Minister said that lifting the restrictions too early “was a mistake”.

In the UK, where the delta has become dominant, infections exploded over the past two months at the highest level since January. Authorities have repeatedly expressed confidence that with more than two-thirds of the adult population fully vaccinated, the impact would be less. In fact, daily deaths are still less than 5% of the peak.

Indonesia lags behind Brazil in terms of vaccination rates, and the Southeast Asian country on Thursday recorded its deadliest day since the start of the pandemic. Sinovac was the predominant vaccine there, but with growing concern that the injection is less effective against Delta, the government is planning booster injections of other vaccines.

Brazilians are paying attention to reports that the Delta variant is wreaking havoc in North American states with low vaccination rates. Even so, many remain optimistic, because the death toll in Brazil has fallen by almost two-thirds since April.

Claudio santosThe 64-year-old was calmly ordering food at a Rio juice bar on Wednesday when she remembered her mask was too old and needed to be replaced. “It’s a little different since the start of this month. We have the perception that there are more people vaccinated, we don’t hear every day that someone we know has been infected with COVID“Santos said.” Of course we are concerned about the new variant, but I haven’t panicked since the pandemic started and I’m not going to do it now. I have been vaccinated and life is resuming its normal course ”.

Delta’s impact could be cushioned by the highly contagious Gamma variant that has emerged in the Amazon city of Manau and he has already established his dominance in all Brazil, said Felipe Naveca, virologist at the State Institute Fiocruz based in Manaus who studies variants.

Brazil hardly performs genomic sequencing tests for coronaviruses, compared to United States and the UKsaid epidemiologist Maciel. In Rio state, the most recent study found that gamma made up 78% of 380 samples and delta 16%, according to its health ministry.

The delta has been detected in at least 18 countries in Latin America, according to the Pan American Health Organization.

It includes nearly two-thirds of all cases sampled in Mexico City, as reported by health authorities last week. The Mexican Minister of Foreign Affairs, Marcelo Ebrard, suggested that its spread contributed to the United States’ decision to postpone the reopening of its border. The death toll in Mexico has started to rise after months of decline.

In Cuba, the delta variant caused the collapse of the health system of the province of Matanza. A medical team sent to help Venezuela it was withdrawn to cope with the influx of patients.

The proportion of the Cuban and Mexican population that is fully vaccinated is higher than that of Brazil, according to Our world in data, an online research site.

Denise garrett, epidemiologist and vice-president of the Sabin Vaccine Institute, said she believes Brazil’s health care system will collapse if it does not prepare for the increase in COVID-19 infections. “We can see what is happening in countries with greater immunization coverage “Garrett said. “There is nothing that makes us think Brazil will be any different.”

(By Débora Álvarez and Mauricio Savarese – AP)

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