Brazil and the power of the vaccine

In the first speech after having recovered his political rights – by the cancellation by the STF of the sentences he suffered during Operation Lava Jato – the Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) asked himself: “Where is our beloved Zé Gotinha?”

“Zé Gotinha” was a very symbolic character in Brazil during vaccination campaigns for children and adults. Charismatic and popular, since the 1980s he has helped promote the success of the national campaigns promoted by the Ministry of Health, making Brazil an example to follow in terms of mass vaccination. Therefore, your the absence during the vaccination against Covid-19 was felt.

The criticism of the former president on March 10, 2021, of the current government’s delay / neglect in the process of purchasing and distributing the vaccine, was on the minds of many. Anchored on the starting line, we watched with amazement as the global vaccination race progressed, as we occupied – and unfortunately continue to occupy – the global epicenter of the health crisis, with an average of 2,000 deaths. per day that month.

What we did not yet know, and which we now officially know in May, is that “Zé Gotinha”, that is to say the initial milestone of our national vaccination campaign, could have already appeared in 2020.

On May 13, Pfizer’s Latin America chief executive Carlos Murillo told the Senate Covid-19 Parliamentary Advisory Committee (ICC) that the company had made at least five offers of coronavirus vaccine doses in Brazil . There was not even a response to letters sent to the various members of Planalto in 2020. According to data from Murillo, 70 million units of the immunizer would have been available until the second quarter of this year.

Brazil has disclosed 70 million Pfizer vaccines

Not by chance, March 19 Ten days after the broadcast of former President Lula’s speech in the press and on social media, the federal government decided to open a dialogue with Pfizer and signed a contract for the purchase of 100 million vaccines. Until then, the vaccine was not a priority. On the contrary, the rhetoric of the current federal government was essentially to disseminate flawed and unfounded measures, such as “early treatment”, using chloroquine and ivermectin.

The presidential firing squad backfired on public opinion poll data. There was a serious strategic error in the environment of President Jair Bolsonaro (without a party) believing that the Brazilian population would not be interested in the vaccine and above all believed in the unscientific discourse of “early treatment”.

Indeed, in October and November 2020, PoderData and Datafolha published surveys that they indicated a decrease in the intention of the population to be vaccinated. In the PoderData survey, during the last week of October, the rate of those who said “they definitely wouldn’t be vaccinated” was 22%, while 63% said they “definitely would. vaccinated “and 15%” did not know. “.

Previous data from the institute’s August survey showed that 82% of those questioned wanted to be vaccinatedIn other words, the number of Brazilians who have changed their mind has increased by almost 20 percentage points in just two months. Certainly, the president’s strong negative propaganda regarding “vachina” – as he pejoratively refers to the CoronaVac, which comes from China – has had an impact on these numbers.

There was a serious strategic error in the environment of President Jair Bolsonaro (without a party) believing that the Brazilian population would not be interested in the vaccine

However, as we know, opinion polls are snapshots of a certain moment. The year has changed and we have witnessed the sad epidemic of the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in Brazil. We have seen the city of Manaus die from lack of oxygen in hospitals, while hospitalizations and deaths have increased exponentially across the country.

At the same time, the countries that responded began to immunize their citizens with agility, which brought hope to return to normal. In February 2021, IPSOS published a global survey showing that Brazil was the second country where the most people would like to be vaccinated, 88% of those questioned answered yes to the question.

Unfortunately, due to the omission of the federal government, by rejecting Pfizer’s proposals five times initially, we could only count on the production of the CoronaVac of the Butantan Institute, which was unable to speed up the vaccination of a continental country like Brazil. The nation has paid dearly for it with the lives of over 400,000 people. The abandonment did not escape the eyes of the population.

Vaccine became key to keeping Bolsonaro in power in 2022

Datafolha released a nationwide poll on the president’s popularity and voting intent scenarios for the 2022 election on May 12.. Jair Bolsonaro would be at the worst time of his tenure, with very strong disapproval: 45% of those questioned consider that his management is bad or terrible and 54% would not vote for him in 2022. Lula is the undisputed leader of the electoral race. In a possible second round, the presidential candidate would obtain 55% against 32% for the current president.

The vaccine has become the key to keeping Bolsonaro in power in 2022. Besides, of course, the indicators – and the perception of the electorate – of the recovery or not of the economy, in particular unemployment and inflation. But according to the photo of the moment, revealed by the latest polls, the situation is very unfavorable for the current president. Many lives could be saved if at least one of Pfizer’s five proposals received a positive response. The eventual loss of Jair Bolsonaro’s tenure in 2022 will be extremely cheap in the face of so many tragedies and omissions.

* Doctorate in political science from IESP / UERJ. (www.latinoamerica21.com)