Brazil appear to have no direction, but Jair Bolsonaro consolidates as favorites for 2022

RIO DE JANEIRO. Brazil now occupies second place in the global ranking of deaths from Covid-19 and is still plunged into a health crisis that seems endless. The unemployment rate hit a record high in 2020, reaching 13.5%, which means that 13.4 million Brazilians are out of the labor market. During the pandemic, economists estimate that 22 million people have become impoverished. If to this are added measures which alarm a large sector of the population, such as the decision to abolish taxes on the importation of arms, It seems difficult to understand why today President Jair Bolsonaro is the favorite in the presidential elections of 2022. But he is.

This reality is accepted by businessmen, the military and allied critics, intellectuals and political analysts in general. Anyone who knows Bolsonaro well knows that the head of state is awake for his re-election. This is his great concern and what is behind his main acts. For many, for example, it was crazy change the chairman of the state-owned company Petrobras and leave the post in the hands of General Joaquin Silva e Luna, former Minister of Defense.

The president’s argument was the need to contain price increases in the domestic market (There have already been four fuel readjustments this year) and surveys that have circulated in recent days have shown that more than 50% of Brazilians agree with the intervention. Among Bolsonaro followers, this support rises to 74%. The São Paulo Stock Exchange collapsed, but the president did not hesitate. In the words of a soldier who belonged to his government, “Bolsonaro doesn’t rule, he campaigns.”

Since coming to power, the head of state has forgotten iconic campaign promises, such as the relentless fight against corruption. He allied himself with the so-called parties of Centrão (center), permanently under suspicion of negotiated not santos, to have a political base which would allow it, among other objectives, to have allies in the presidencies of the Chamber of Deputies (Arthur Lira, Progressistas) and of the Senate (Rodrigo Pacheco, Democrats), both elected in early February. If with the critic Rodrigo Maia, who ended his mandate as president of the lower house, the more than 30 requests for Accused the president did not prosper, next year the question will no longer be on the agenda.

For Professor of International Relations Mauricio Santoro, of the State University of Rio de Janeiro (UERJ), “Today, Bolsonaro’s approval is around 30%. For his voters, the agreement with the Centrão was a necessary evil, it is justified. This sector is appeased by more radical measures such as the liberation from the purchase of weapons and cultural and religious questions ”.

To the liberals, who celebrate the permanence in the government of the Minister of the Economy, Paulo Guedes, despite his notable weakness, Bolsonaro makes them happy with initiatives such as central bank autonomy and the announcement of future privatizations. If the elections were held today, Santoro assures us, “Bolsonaro would be re-elected”. “We have 70% who are not Bolonarists, but this percentage of voters is very fragmented. Even on the left, we have divisions. There are those who follow Lula and those who want an alternative, ”added Santoro.

By decision of Lula, the former mayor of San Pablo Fernando Haddad is already in the campaign, beaten by Bolsonaro in the second round of the 2018 presidential elections. Many still believe that Lula will ultimately be the president’s rival, but his judicial processes are a major obstacle. Obviously, that would be the best case scenario for both.

What Bolsonaro fears the most, we know, is having to face an opponent who could take votes from the center and the right. This is why his clear strategy of neutralizing opponents who may dispute the electorate was the key to his victory in 2018. Leaders such as former Justice Minister Sergio Moro or former Health Minister Luiz Henrique Mandetta are considered to be the most dangerous as their speeches penetrate the president’s voters. “Bolsonaro was not elected by his most loyal base, he was elected with votes from the center and the right which were and are very defined as anti-PT,” said private consultant Rafael Favetti.

According to his calculations, hard bolsonarism does not exceed 15%. “Today, there is no strong name to occupy this space. In Brazil, candidatures come from parties and today the vast majority of parties are more concerned with challenging regional governments. For the national fight, we will have Bolsonaro, the PT, the Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB) and a few others ”, assured the consultant.

On the other hand, he completed, no one has control of social media like the president. “The left continues with the old idea of ​​occupying the streets. The only one who understands and knows how to manage social networks, which today have more influence than the street, is the president. And everyone who is put in front of him is destroyed by his virtual army, ”said Favetti.

Many names circulate, inside and outside the political system, but today the one that weighs the most is that of Bolsonaro. With more than 6,000 soldiers occupying positions in his government – even compared to the last dictatorship -, the head of state maintains the crucial support of the armed forces.

Logically, there are concerns about the damage that government disasters can cause to the image of military society. Restless, above all, the responsibility that the Minister of Health, General Eduardo Pazuello, will bear in the tragedy of the pandemic. But these fears are expressed under the breath. Publicly, the military remains loyal to Bolsonaro and, far from being a moderating factor in his government – as many believed – they don’t seem shocked at anything.

“The army will continue with Bolsonaro until the end. Businessmen could leave, but the military, evangelicals and more conservative groups are part of the Bolonarian base, ”Santoro said. The growing presence of the military – active and retired – in government has an economic context. The military themselves admit, in informal discussions, that the economic advantage of holding a public office attracts a lot of them in times of greatest need. “Power corrupts,” said a retired soldier. When deciding, the uniformed officers were inclined to take advantage of an opportunity that they know will not be repeated.

Brazil has passed 250,000 deaths from Covid-19, the situation is critical in several states and hospitals are still full. But the numbers Bolsonaro ultimately prioritizes are those from the polls that today put him in the best position for the fight for the presidency in 2022.

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