Brazil elections: Lula sweeps and defeats Bolsonaro

According to a public opinion poll that measured Brazil’s ten potential candidates for the 2022 presidential elections, Only former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva shows he has more political capital than current President Jair Bolsonaro and could win in the first round of the October 2022 elections.

According to the survey carried out by IPEC (Intelligence in Research and Consulting), 50% of those polled said they would vote with confidence or could vote for Lula if he ran again, while 44% said they would not choose him at all. Bolsonaro, for his part, appears with 12 percentage points less in voting potential (38%), and 12 more in rejection (56%).

It is a survey that measures the floor and the acceptance ceiling of each potential candidate. Currently, the Clean Register Law which is used to persecute rulers in the neighboring country requires Lula’s deportation in 2022 because he has criminal convictions handed down by the court. His lawyers have sought to overturn convictions relating to real estate in Guarujá and Atibaia. In recent interviews, the leader of the PT spoke of the intention to compete.

Behind Lula and Bolsonaro in the ranking of voting potential are Sérgio Moro (31%), Luciano Huck (28%), Fernando Haddad (27%), Ciro Gomes (25%), Marina Silva (21%), Luiz Henrique Mandetta (15%), João Doria (15%) and Guilherme Boulos (10%). All except Moro, whose rejection rate is 50%, are rejected as an absolute majority voting option of the electorate. Technically tied with Bolsonaro’s 56% on “I wouldn’t vote at all” are Marina (59%), Huck (57%), Doria (57%), Ciro (53%) and Haddad (52%) .

The IPEC poll also shows which segments of the candidate electorate have the most support. Bolsonaro finds more sympathizers among evangelicals (53% of voting potential), inhabitants of the southern region (46%) and in the income bracket between two and five minimum wages (45%). Interviews Ipec heard from 2,002 people in 143 communes of the country The survey was carried out between February 19 and 23 and the margin of error is 2 percentage points more or less.