Brazil’s bankers and businessmen demand the defense of democracy

The Brazilian establishment decidedly does not agree with the outbursts of President Jair Bolsonaro, who since the end of July has launched a guerrilla war against the Supreme Courtwoe especially to certain judges of this institution. There were several times when the head of state raised the possibility of a “self-help”, all because of the voting system for the 2022 elections. The latest presidential misstep was notorious. “I have three possibilities for the future: to die, to go to prison or to succeed,” he told his supporters. And then he clarified: “To die depends on God and I will never go to prison”, so the only way out he sees for his future is winning the next election.

If the votes do not support it, to Bolsonaro would have the alternative of questioning the legality of the electoral act, in the image and resemblance of what his American idol, Donald Trump, did.. And he would seek to file a complaint for alleged fraud with those who sponsor him today: the military, the police, religious sectors and businessmen who have benefited from his government. The “disorder” and “uncertainty” that such a scenario suggests are feared by Brazil’s financial and productive elites.

So much so that the last week a manifesto of commercial and banking entities. Under the title of “The Place of the Three Powers” – a green space which separates, in Brasilia, the palaces of Planalto, the Supreme Court and the Congress – the establishment denounces the climate of tension created by the authorities and it demands ” serenity, dialogue, political pacification and institutional stability “. He also asks the government to focus on the fight against the pandemicwoe to the recovery of the economy. It is signed by the Brazilian Federation of Banks (Febraban) and the most diverse industrial federations, including the FIESP of São Paulo, which coordinated the edition of the proclamation.

“The end of financial support for government is reflected in a very concrete way in the more expensive dollar and in the stock market crash,” said an economist at Necton Inversiones. According to former Central Bank President Illan Goldfajn, the idea of ​​issuing a declaration arose out of the need to preserve democratic institutions, at a time when Bolsonaro had warned that if Congress did not pass a new law election to re-impose the printed vote, there could be “no elections in October 2022”. In one week, the document obtained the signatures of more than 25,000 people, all linked to the productive and financial sector. They not only opposed the authoritarianism shown by the ruling party; They also said that this phenomenon has a very negative impact on the country’s economy. “The investor is wondering whether or not there will be stability in the country,” Goldfajn commented in an interview with the daily Valor Economico.

The truth is that the progress of the Brazilian economy is far from having a good time. The last quarter saw a negative performance, against the assumptions of the Ministry of the Economy: GDP fell by 0.1%, against an expectation of growth of around 2%. The diagnosis indicates that the country is going through a stage marked by inflation, unemployment and stagnation. According to economists, the signs of recovery recorded between December and January were quickly exhausted. In their estimates, a 5% increase in GDP would be necessary by the end of 2021, to get out of the buraco in which Brazilian society was plunged in 2020. This is not exactly the expectation, on the contrary. To add unwanted effects, Drought has broken out and is now overwhelming the agricultural sector, which spearheads Brazil’s world exports. Analysts said coffee, corn and sugarcane are the sectors that suffer the most from lack of rain and lower rivers.

There are 14.8 million unemployed; Among them, 3.5 million citizens have not found a job for more than two years; and there are 6 million who, discouraged, have given up looking for work

In this context, Since the start of the year, Brazilians have suffered from unemployment. There are 14.8 million unemployed; Among them, 3.5 million citizens have not found a job for more than two years; and there are 6 million who, discouraged, have given up looking for a job. Correspondingly, food insecurity now reaches 37% of households, according to the latest household survey. However, Bolsonaro is not giving up hope and believes that next year there may be an improvement in the economy, something that could ensure a thickening of its mass of voters.

A separate chapter is the date of the homeland, the Declaration of Independence of September 7, 1822. It is celebrated next Tuesday and the leader of the Planalto has summoned his hosts to participate in the two acts he will chair: that of Brasilia and that of of San Pablo, at different times. He counts, among his audience, soldiers and police, in addition to the entourage that has accompanied him since 2018, composed of independent workers, street vendors, taxi drivers, and members of Christian religions. In society there is fear of what may happen that day. Many remember the words spoken by the president a few weeks ago when called on citizens to “buy weapons, because it is the guarantee that the people will never be reduced to slavery ”; The risk is that “in these demonstrations someone thinks of playing with revolvers and pistols,” José Matias Silva, editor-in-chief of a website in a São Paulo favela, told this journalist.

As stated in the manifesto published this week by the big businessmen of Minas Gerais, the third most important provincial state, “the rupture on the arms, due to the physical clashes in the streets, is synonymous with anarchy. Democracy cannot be threatened, but must be strengthened and perfected ”.

*Author from Brazil 7 days. From São Paulo, Brazil.

SM CP