"Brexit can be an economic disaster for the UK and something very complicated for Europe"

There are dramatic days in London and Brussels. After months of stagnation, unsuccessful votes, requests for extensions and ultimatums, the future of relations between the United Kingdom and the European Union (EU) remains uncertain. After the European Commission pbaded the deadline for reaching an exit agreement from 29 March to 12 April, it has been learned in recent hours that Prime Minister Theresa May offered her resignation in return for her release. approval by Parliament that already rejected twice. We do not know yet what the response will be from the House of Commons.

Far from the epicenter of the conflict but following the negotiations closely, Thomas Kropp, representative of Germany at the Economic and Social Committee of the European Union (EESC), explained what was happening. in Europe during his time at the traditional Rotary Club lunch in Buenos Aires.

"Brexit can be an economic disaster for the UK and something very complicated for the European Union", who for many years has been one of the most senior executives at Lufthansa, Germany's largest airline.

"They will have to hire 10,000 customs officials because there was practically no. Airbus, for example, has announced that it will take its signature from the United Kingdom and place it in another country. The UK financial sector is the financial sector and 40 banks have already migrated from London to Frankfurt. Many companies do not want to pay taxes and their trucks line up at the border. That's why Brexit can be so negative, "he said.

Kropp explained that without the rest of Europe, the UK would become a tiny entity with much less weight on the international scene. "Countries are negotiating differently with the EU, market of 500 million inhabitants. China's President (Xi Jinping) does not go to London but to Paris. The mistake of the United Kingdom is very serious. "

One of the biggest fears that a Brexit scenario raises without agreement is return violence between the Republic of Ireland, which is a member of the EU, and Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom. The German representative defended the contract between May and Brussels in order to reach a negotiated solution, which includes the so-called backstop, a series of guarantees to prevent the establishment of a hard border on the island.

"In the EU, there are no borders between countries," he said. This helped to calm the situation in Ireland, where there was a lot of blood up until 20 years ago.when the Holy Friday peace agreement was concluded. If there was a hard border in Ireland, as there is one between Russia and Poland, it would be complicated. Therefore, the contract stipulates that a free boundary must be left until a new regime is found to facilitate movement between peoples. But hard heads say that you can not accept the backstopbecause this would imply that the UK remains for years in a free trade agreement, which would prevent it from concluding agreements with other countries.

Kropp tried to interpret why, while the deal negotiated in May would avoid many of the most dramatic consequences of a brutal departure, but many lawmakers refuse to accept it. "Brexit opponents say that there are too many concessions to the EU and that they want to break completely. This is disturbing, because of the possibility that there is a wild Brexit without rules of the game. "

The question everyone asks is whether both parties can find an alternative. Because nobody wants a Brexit without agreement, but we do not know how else the British Parliament can offer to Europe.

"The elections to the European Parliament will take place on May 26 and no one, not even the British, wants to participate for a week. the 27 other heads of state forced May to do something by May 22but we do not know what it will be. Parliament said it would not wait until May to present the same contract. One option is to ask for a new election and another option is to call a second popular vote, but I do not believe in that because the British tradition is very democratic and it is hard to deny the outcome of the 2016 referendum. as in football, we win or lose, so if they did, there could be another crisis. "

Any alternative path proposed by UK lawmakers must be approved by Brussels, which did not want to renegotiate the contract signed with May. Kropp defended this position.

"Some say why the EU is not more flexible and lets it go," he said, "the problem is this: if you can stay in the free market, but without paying the costs, it would be like being a member of the Rotary Club without paying You can not be a member and play a little with the rules, but do not accept the problems (…) The positive surprise is that the 27 countries, even if they have problems and differences, remain firm and united on this issue.because they do not want to risk the bursting of the EU. We do not want it to be a bad example for another. "

Whatever it is, viewed by InfobaeKropp has left open the possibility that the EU will accept a different agreement, provided it meets certain conditions. For example, an agreement that leaves the UK a status similar to that of Norway, which is part of the European Economic Area but not the EU. However, he expressed his doubts about the imposition of this initiative in the House of Commons.

"I think it would be possible, but for the UK it would be very uncomfortable. They should respect all the rules of the game, the judgments of the Court of Justice of the European Communities, but also pay a lot of money, but without the right to vote. for or against the laws. Norway does it, but it is staying in the interior without a vote. You can do it, but I do not think it's the preferred choice, "he told the media.

European elections and the advance of the far right

"I do not think it's a danger now, but these movements are growing. A complex problem in the elections is that the Christian Democratic and Social-Democratic forces formed an informal coalition to move the EU forward. This alliance may be fragile after the outcome of this election. But there are liberals, greens and many pro-Europeans who can prevent these extremists from having an important place. In Germany, surveys give them between 13 and 15%. It's a lot, but far from forming a majority. "

The German representative to the EESC spoke of the growing number of anti-Semitic attacks, one of the most disturbing faces of the far-right progress in Europe. "When there is an economic crisis, there are always people looking for the culprits." The anti-Semitic theme in Germany is not yet dominant, although it exists. I do not want to blame anyone, but immigration from the Middle East and countries close to Israeli influences. Similarly, it is not only immigrants, there are also crazy people. But the German police are very hard so that this does not become a major problem. "

Finally, he addressed a problem that is troubling European political leaders and that the United States has already experienced in the 2016 elections: the possibility that another country is trying to influence the outcome of the elections. Without directly mentioning Russia, the main target of these maneuvers, Kropp expressed its concern.

"Today there are international agents who, along with false newsthey want to influence political movements. I'm not saying who may be behind, but they are international powers with no interest in the strength and success of the EU. It may be one in Eastern Europe, but I do not want to give names. "