"Buenos Aires will be like Sidney and London like Barcelona"

This is the result of a new study badessing the future impact of climate change.

The research was conducted by Crowther Lab, a research group of the EHT Zurich University of Switzerland.

The study calculated probable temperature increases in 520 cities of more than one million inhabitants by 2050.

The authors say, for example, that New York will have a climate similar to that of Virginia Beach, Madrid to Marrakech and London to Barcelona.

Buenos Aires and Montevideo will have the same temperatures as Sydney.

Expected temperature changes in 2050

Maximum increase in temperature during the hottest month

The report also estimates the expected increase in temperature for the hottest month of the year and the annual average for 2050 in each city,

In Guadalajara, for example, the highest temperature during the hottest month will reach 4.6 degrees Celsius higher than the current month and the increase in the annual average will be 0.7 degrees Celsius, according to the study published in the PLOS One review. .

The authors of the research created an interactive map on which hundreds of cities can be seen and what other urban centers will look like in 2050.

The Crowther Lab is a research group led by British scientist Thomas Crowther, professor of systems ecology at EHT Zurich University.

Crowther seeks with his laboratory to develop new ways of visualizing the global magnitude of changes in the ecology and climate of the planet.

More rains and droughts

According to the study, about 8 out of 10 cities will experience dramatic changes.

The report says that the increase in temperature will accompany other problems, such as more intense rains and more severe drought periods.

The study points out that many cities in currently temperate climates will experience water shortages, especially in Europe, where the increase in temperature due to climate change can reach 3.5 degrees in summer and 4.7 degrees in winter.

One of the most worrying scenarios is that of cities like Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur that, according to the researchers, will experience unique conditions in all the urban areas of the world.

And that means that the challenges in terms of infrastructure or political decisions will be unprecedented. According to the researchers, these cities will likely experience periods of heavy rainfall with floods and other frequent periods of extreme drought.

This week, the UK Climate Change Committee, a public institute, issued a report that the UK government is not at all prepared for the likely consequences of the climate crisis.

Possible scenarios

The authors of the study noted that their calculations are based on one of the "representative concentration trajectories" (representative concentration trajectory) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (IPCC).

Trajectories are possible scenarios based on different amounts of CO2 or carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in the future.

This study is supported in particular by the IPCC SPC4.5, which represents an optimistic scenario in which the implementation of mitigation policies would have stabilized CO2 emissions by 2050 and the Global temperature would have risen an average of 1.4 degrees centigrade compared to the pre-industrial era of 1850, "noted the Crowther Lab.

Mr. James Dyke, Professor of Global Systems in the Department of Geography, University of Exeter, England, explained to BBC World the significance of the scenarios on which the study was based.

"We do not know what will happen to the climate in the future, but we need scenarios or simulations to make decisions," said Dyke.

"The figures refer to the different amounts of additional CO2 in the atmosphere, ranging from a CPR of 2.6 (scenario with the lowest human impact on climate) to a SPC of 8 , 5, the most extreme scenario, This means an increase in temperature that may exceed 4 degrees by the end of the century. "

The scenario chosen in the study, RCP 4.5, limits the temperature increase to 2 degrees. But not exceeding this limit is a huge challenge.

"If we continue as we are now in terms of emissions, it is estimated that the increase will be 2 degrees by mid-century and could be above 4 degrees from here. the end of the century, "said Dyke.

"There is a lot of uncertainty, but if the temperature rises by more than 3 degrees, it is to be feared that there are points of no return and processes that amplify the warming produced by it. 39, man. "

Viewing

One of the main goals of the Interactive Map and Study Crowther Lab is to help people visualize the possible impacts of climate change.

"History has repeatedly shown that data and facts alone do not encourage people to change their beliefs or actions," said Jean-François Bastin, lead author of the study. .

"The intangible nature of climate change reports does not adequately translate the urgency, it is difficult to understand what will mean a 2 degree increase in daily life."

Some observers cautioned that the map should be viewed as an illustration of what might happen, not as a forecast, as many variables can affect the outcome.

James Dyke, who did not participate in the study, says the research is "very useful because it helps us understand and visualize what climate change means".

If you are talking to a person of a 3 degree increase by the end of the century, this may seem like a far off place, but if you tell someone in London that time will be like in Barcelona, ​​it's shocking. "

"For me, a fundamental element of the study is that 100 cities located near the equator will experience an unprecedented climate in the history of humanity."

"And this raises the question of whether it will be possible to continue living in these cities, we could face a scenario of displacement and mbad migration."

BBC