Business and promotions: why Venezuelan military leaders still support Nicolás Maduro

The Venezuelan people took to the streets to support the leader of the opposition, Juan Guaidó, and the list of countries that recognize him as legitimate president is expanding. However, the high command of the armed forces sent another message. They continue to support Nicolás Maduro and are the most decisive actor in view of a final outcome of the crisis.

In successive messages, the generals in front of the troops swore Thursday their support for the besieged president, Nicolás Maduro, a demonstration of loyalty that little surprised.

Since taking over the reins of government in 2013, Maduro, protected from the late Socialist leader Hugo Chávez, he cemented the support of the armed forces by promoting loyal servicemen, giving them control of key sectors of the economy and appointing them to positions in the cabinet.

It means that senior leaders are indebted to Maduro and fear losing their jobs or going to jail if they betray him, according to experts. The troupe, which is struggling to provide for the family, may not have such strong loyalty, but the chances of a large sector being absent and recognizing Guaidó are slim, said several active officers and retirees.

"We have to wait the next 48 hours," said José Antonio Colina, a retired army lieutenant. He added that if in this interval, those who do not agree do not pronounce, we understand that they support their commanders.

The armed forces have always been the arbiters of political disputesalthough, according to the Constitution promulgated by Chavez, they are not in the service of any political party or any person.

Just sixty-one years before the proclamation of Guaidó in front of a multitude of supporters as president of Venezuela, the army sacked the dictator Marcos Pérez Jiménez, who fled by plane to the Dominican Republic while the riots were growing.

In 1992, Major Hugo Chavez led a failed coup d'etat and, ten years later, he was sacked for a short time.

Guaidó, a 35-year-old lawmaker who has revived opposition, said three sectors were essential for the establishment of a new government: the people, the international community and the armed forces.

But the armed forces he is asking for support are very different from those of the past; Chavez and Maduro have erased the borders that were previously cut between the soldiers, the government and the ruling party.. In this environment, it is highly unlikely that a fracture will occur at the wheel, even if the military base has cracks.

These last years, Hundreds of people fled abroad seeking better economic prospects and dozens of people went to jail suspected of conspiring against the government. On Monday morning, dozens of National Guards seized an badault rifle depot, but the uprising was quickly crushed.

C & # 39; striking that the armed forces have not activated the emergency protocol called "Zamora Plan", which has been used in previous disturbances and allows them to repress and control mbad mobilizations. A former general who requested anonymity said that he could be a recognition that disappointed subordinates would not obey these orders.

Rocío San Miguel, an expert of the armed forces, said that even though there had been clashes Wednesday between protesters and security forces, the mbad rally in which Guaidó had been held was unrolled without confrontation.

On Thursday, a 19-year-old national guard said that he did not want to be in the situation of having to beat the protesters. "Expressing under cover of anonymity for fear of reprisals, he said he is outraged to be arrested"the innocent"

Another comrade who was patrolling with him in an artery leading to the Supreme Court stated that he had not seen the videos in which the military leaders were supporting Maduro, but that he was obeying the rules. orders from his superiors.

Retired Lieutenant Colina said that Although many soldiers are hungry, like many other Venezuelans, their conduct does not allow them to challenge their superiors.which means that they will probably opt for the status quo.

"This is not enough, unfortunately"He said" They stopped being the moral skeleton ".

Several former chiefs who have close contacts with serving military members have stated that if Guaidó wants a chance to gain support from sectors of the armed forces, he will have to continue to mobilize the population and show the skeptical army and with much to lose, he will keep his promise to grant amnesty to those who promote the changes.

"What's happening in Venezuela is not over"San Miguel said," He is developing. "