Buy or sell? Scenarios not to panic

I have recently had to write a note indicating whether we are recently informed or simply "influenced". It then came to my mind to offer you an almost personal catharsis of an Argentine financial investor.

First of all, I am one of those who made a mistake, that I had planned a much more positive scenario for this height of the calendar. Obviously, I invested in Bonar 24 and in shares of local companies. It is clear that from that moment I have stopped being objective because my desire that it goes well exceeds the contrast of the actual data. But it does not help me to constantly hear reports on funds already sold and to tell me all the time: "It will explode"; They are not targets either, they have already been sold. Your negativism and my positivism are already part of current prices. Or do you think anyone who thinks there is a dollarization due to the electoral risk will wait until the last day? Of course, he does it already and explains the current prices.

Whenever I see a report from a global investment bank, whatever its name, which recommends buying or selling an badet, I automatically have the belief that it is about influencing rather than informing. Why would you recommend me to your clients?

If I travel on a plane and it collapses, I do not run away because I paid for the tickets early. I can not understand what a self-fulfilling prophecy is for if the end result is that we all lose. In the background, every morning, thousands of workers get up to look for the return, the field comes back to save us productivity; Despite the beating they ate last year, they again insisted on investing. There are investments in energy (Vaca Muerta) that will at least make us non-importers, which is very good for our trade balance.

Now I start catharsis aloud:

1) I lose a lot. Sell ​​now? If I put 10 and is worth 4 today, how much more can I lose? The truth is that I have 10 more, I only have 4, and if I sell, with these 4, how to recover something. Conclusion: it is not worth selling for me, too late to regret, I have to mourn the wrong decision, wait, I have more to recover than to lose. I have to stop reading news that seeks to influence rather than inform.

2) Will they pay the bonuses? Logic scenario for me: yes. Because of the size of the debt and especially to whom we owe, we lose more by paying only by paying. To put it in figures, Argentina today has twice as much risk as Sri Lanka, Lebanon or Honduras, and if I speak of countries at risk, I think we are exaggerating with our bad atmosphere. In this case, I do not sell.

Lean scenario, the one who wins restructures the debt. In this case, there will be a reduction or an extension of time, given what they are worth. In parities below 75%, it seems to me that even in this scenario, I can not lose. Conclusion: Again, it is not worth selling, duel the wrong decision and hold, you have more to recover than to lose. Stop reading news that seeks to influence rather than inform.

3) Is it 2001? I am not able to compare socially, but financially, I trace some differences. A: Almost all provinces have a budget surplus, they do not need Patacons, Lecop, Lecor or whatever they want to call it; B: There is no family debt, they lent us little and in pesos. Families are not in debt; in 2001, the majority owed dollars and earned pesos; C: The total private debt of the system companies is minimal. In fact, a corporate bond yields half as much as a sovereign bond. Conclusion: we have more past than vision of the future.

Well, what do you know? After this minicatarsis I prefer not to sell. Neither you nor I can change the past, but we can reduce a change and see that finances result from the interaction between fear, euphoria and days of panic. The first two feelings have something positive, fear alert me and protect me, euphoria makes me risk and win. But panic is bad, it forces you to make bad decisions and you can not panic for a long time. It's one thing to endure a flight with one or two turbulence and another, to be all the flying in motion. In an instant, you despair and you want to go down (obviously, it will not be a good decision).

I think the market panicked, that the day before yesterday and there had been a catharsis yesterday, and many have fallen into motion, but if someone sells it, it's because it's another bought. Today, at least, I have seen the buyer quieter than the seller.

Bachelor of Business Administration and Finance Specialist