By 2100, Los Glaciares National Park could lose 60% of the ice – 01/05/2019

The Los Glaciares National Park It is a pride of Argentina and contains some of the largest glaciers on the planet. But international scientists have discouraging forecasts. They ensure that, if greenhouse effect continue at the current rate, will suffer a loss of ice so important that could disappear 60 percent of the current volume for the year 2100.

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This is one of the results of the world's first survey of glaciers declared World Heritage by UNESCO. He also concluded that almost half of the glaciers included in this list they can disappear completely for the next century.

The report published Tuesday in Land of the futuree- was conducted by the American Geophysical Union (AGU) in collaboration with scientists from the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), based in Switzerland and advisor to the United Nations on environmental issues.

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The researchers combined data from a global inventory of glaciers, a review of existing literature and a sophisticated computer model. In total, they documented about 19,000 glaciers, that is to say 9% of those that exist on the planet.

The authors noted that in recent decades, gas emissions at the origin of the global warming. And they predicted that if this situation were maintained, by 2100, the glaciers will have completely disappeared in 21 of the 46 sites inscribed on UNESCO's list.

Even in a more optimistic scenario, in which greenhouse gas emissions have significantly decreased (in line with the objectives of the Paris Climate Agreement), the study considers that 8 of these 46 sites will run out of ice on this date.

They also predict that from 33 to 60 percent of total ice volume recorded in 2017 at World Heritage sites will be lost from here 2100. The precise percentage will depend on the evolution of greenhouse gas emissions.

Reserves that are at risk

Among the endangered glaciers are among the most emblematic of the world, such as the Great Aletsch Glacier in the Swiss Alps, the Khumbu Glacier in the Himalayas (Nepal) or the Jakobshavn in Greenland.

In the case of Argentina, the study mentions that Los Glaciares National Park contains some of the largest glaciers on the planet. This is one of the main reasons for its inclusion on the list of World Heritage of UNESCO, something that is happening in only 5 of the 46 sites studied.

The statement issued by IUCN states that "a very large loss of ice, about 60% of the current volume, is forecast for 2100" in the park located in the province of Holy Cross and that includes the famous Perito Moreno Glacier.

In North America, the Waterton-Glacier Peace International Park, the Canadian Rockies and the US Olympic National Park could lose more than 70% of their current glaciers by 2100, even with a drastic reduction in carbon dioxide emissions.

In Europe, the disappearance of small glaciers in the Monte Perdido National Park in the Pyrenees (Spain and France) before 2040. In New Zealand, Te Wahipounamu is expected to lose between 25 and 80% of the current ice volume this century.

How to avoid the decline

Beyond these alarming results, the authors highlight the critical role played by glaciers for ecosystems and societies globally. Therefore, its conservation could serve as a trigger for solving the unprecedented problem of climate change.

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"Losing these iconic glaciers it would be a tragedy and bring serious consequences for the availability of water resources, sea-level rise and weather conditions, "said Peter Shadie, director of the IUCN World Heritage Program, in a statement.

"This unprecedented decline could also jeopardize the inclusion of these sites on the World Heritage List: States must strengthen their commitments to combat climate change and intensify their efforts to preserve these glaciers for future generations "he continued. Shadie

For his part, Jean-Baptiste Bosson, lead author of the study, added that to preserve them "we need urgently make significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions"This is only as well as we will avoid irreversible damage" that could have serious natural, social, economic and migratory consequences ".

DD