Can the VOX phenomenon in social networks be translated into polls?

In recent weeks, the phenomenon around VOX has only grown in social networks, even though its campaign seems to have been conducted in the margins of Spanish politics. Blocked his participation in televised debates, the vice-secretary of the party's international relations, Iván EspinosaIt's touted that, during the same time, Google's VOX research has skyrocketed.

"Every time they attack us, we go harder (…) On TV, where they do not let us go, we need (we are) the most wanted game on Google, the Internet and the most watched videos. Take, "progress" "Espinosa told an exultant audience a few days ago.

Indeed, an badysis of the social network Twitter has shown that Santiago Abascal is the candidate who has grown the most in followers during the debates on television, even if he did not return because of the prohibition of the Electoral Council. The Vox leader rose 3.37 percent, while among the other four who followed was married with 1.86 percent, the newspaper reported. L & # 39; Spanish.

Among the official party accounts during the debates, he was also the most favored of Vox with more than 17,327 new followers. against 17 182 of Podemos. Ciudadanos (9,782), the PSOE (6,814) and the People's Party (4,666) were further back.

If the candidates are badyzed on Facebook, the result is similar. Vox shows sustained growth for several months and its final projection is the highest.

According to the Spanish media, the results of the far right campaign were also positive Instagram, where the youngest voters and perhaps most of those who will go to the polls for the first time are concentrated. There, although she competes with the left Podemos, her strategy has been relatively successful thanks to her simple messages, very visual and looking for a sentimental link with users.

Julián Gallo, Journalist and content consultant on social networks of the Argentine government, compared the behavior of social networks of different candidates in different networks to see if they match the polls and results known later in the elections.

"In the case of Trump and Bolsonaro behavior in networks was a better predictor than professional surveys. But it is not always like that. Now, in Spain, the difference is so big according to the surveys that it seems that it does not coincide with what we see in the networks. Tomorrow we will know. According to the figures of networks, Vox should make a remarkable choice, "he warned during a dialogue with Infobae.

According to him, this is explained because currently Millions of people spend close to a third of their lucid year watching the phone's screen and, roughly, three-quarters use messaging networks and applications. "No media can overcome this influence," he said.

Indeed, the level of activation of its base is unprecedented for a right that has not emerged with this momentum in Spain since the fall of the Franco regime in 1975. In addition to mbadive acts, VOX has realized trendy topics On Twitter, he ranked his YouTube channel as the most watched and invited hundreds of thousands of people to watch live videos of his campaign. Experts compare this level of mobilization with the generated by Podemos between 2014 and 2016.

For all these reasons, the possibilities that investigations have trouble explaining this phenomenon are great. In the last published before the elections, the PSOE is in the lead with nearly 3% of voting intentions, followed by the PP with just over 21%, Ciudadanos y Podemos around 13 or 14% and, finally, VOX with less 10%. What the polls have detected are the 11 million undecided voters whose shadow could change the outcome of the elections.

From the VOX campaign team, they are aware and warn that "The polls are wrong in everything, because our vote is transversal, of all ages, all backgrounds and all conditions, which is difficult to detect in conventional polls."

Abascal defines his relationship with the media saying that VOX is "Spain that does not need to consult polls or read in a newspaper to know anyone's speech." And that seems to be true.

Although the politician has refused to identify with the representatives of what we could call "the populist right", the truth is that when badyzing election campaigns, they appear elements that match your party with those of other movements with characteristics anti-establishment like this one Marine Le Pen in France, Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil or the same Donald Trump in the USA.

Campaign strategy and parallels with Donald Trump

"We are at a time when they are producing surprising and constant impacts, which is why the games have launched a multitude of messages and have given the impression of improvising. The vote is so volatile in these elections that we could say that the strategies are liquid"He explained to Infobae Gustavo Entrala, Spanish consultant specializing in the digital strategy and, among others, creator of the Twitter account of Pope Francisco.

According to him, VOX sought to exploit "a bold profile, trumpet"His strategy has tried to capture all possible attention to dislodge the opponent and mark his agenda, while challenging the traditional media by refusing interviews."This is the Donald Trump style manual. "added Entrala.

As in the aforementioned election campaigns, defined in social networks, the fear of false news Videos, images and news without sources and dubious origins marked the day the day of the campaign and gave an unprecedented importance to WhatsApp.

"Still, I think we have not seen any phenomenon of false news orchestrated as we saw in the United States in 2016. What has grown and it's a common point is the distrust of traditional media VOX appealed to them very aggressively ", according to Entrala.

Just a few hours before the elections, some investigations began to reflect what appears in social networks as a blatant truth, and the media began to dare to speak, still with fear, of what might be the bump one of the most uncertain elections of recent years in Spain. We will have to wait until we have opened the polling stations to check it.