Canada: Justin Trudeau, the flame that never goes out | International

Justin Trudeau often repeats a line: “No one wants an election during a pandemic, but the Liberals are ready in case the opposition continues to distrust this government.” A minority government in Canada – like the one Trudeau formed in October 2019 – lasts an average of 18 months. And despite covid-19, opinions from media and political groups suggest the polls could be rolled out in the fall. A project to adapt the electoral process to the health situation is even debated in Parliament. Trudeau, who has had its ups and downs during his years as prime minister, has a good chance of securing a new term.

In 2015, the Liberals formed a majority government after nearly ten years under the shadow of Conservative Stephen Harper. Its leader, Justin Trudeau, convinced by his dynamism, his hope and his charisma. He legalized recreational cannabis, extended family benefits, and promoted multilateralism. The economy was healthy (unemployment hit 5.6% in December 2018, the lowest since 1976). Trudeau also faced – with a dose of patience – Donald Trump’s harsh ways (in the end, they renegotiated a new trade framework with Mexico). The postcard was of a photogenic politician walking forward and smiling.

However, Trudeau’s popularity waned for breaking some campaign promises (such as electoral reform) and taking action unpopular with progressives (the nationalization of the TransMountain pipeline was one of them). “Its image has been tarnished by several scandals, inside and outside the country,” explains Daniel Béland, director of the Institute for Canadian Studies at McGill University. Béland cites, among other things, a trip to India full of nonsense, old photos with his face made in black (deemed offensive) and the intention to influence the former Minister of Justice so that a Canadian company is not sanctioned.

During the 2019 campaign, the Liberals put more emphasis on the project than on the magnetism of its leader. So came the time for a more sober style, which reduced the risk of betting everything on the image. They retained power, but lost the parliamentary majority and the popular vote. Trudeau knew he was not armed against madness. The postcard that best reflects this was given when, in tears, she apologized for using this dark makeup 20 years ago.

The influence of the pandemic

The strength of covid-19 began to be felt in Canada in the early months of 2020. The Trudeau government launched a tough financial protection plan for families and businesses that included – among other things – benefits from emergency for freelancers, support for commercial rent and wages. subsidies. “The federal government will do whatever it takes to help Canadians navigate this crisis,” said Chrystia Freeland, Minister of Finance at the time.

Support for covid-19 was approximately C $ 348,000 million ($ 288,000 million). Freeland presented the budget in April. The document included a $ 101,000 million economic stimulus package, in addition to significant social investments, and federal debt of $ 1.2 trillion (51% of GDP); the deficit, 155,000 million. Freeland stressed that low interest rates would make it possible to seek out these resources.

Conservative MPs and some financial stylists have cataloged the budget as “electoralist.” Pedro Antunes, Chief Economist of the Conference Board of Canada, comments: “In 2020 Canada slowed down the economy and gave out a lot of support, while in the United States aid was limited and it was decided to keep the economy more open. The economic impact was less in the United States, but more important for health ”. The Bank of Canada has published that GDP in 2021 could grow between 4% and 6.5%, even if there are still 300,000 jobs to be returned to pre-pandemic levels.

Journalist Paul Wells wrote in the magazine Maclean’s on the power that Justin Trudeau had and used: “This absolute dominance of the political landscape was largely the product of the coronavirus disaster and the financial health that Trudeau inherited from his predecessors and has not yet squandered. There are more accidents than strategy. But in 2020, it was Trudeau’s country. The rest of us lived there. “

In November, 70% of people consulted in a Léger poll approved of Trudeau’s handling of the pandemic. 53% of Canadians have received at least one dose of the vaccine. But during a pandemic, Trudeau was plunged into a new scandal: he was accused of having awarded a contract to an organization close to him and his family. The ethics commissioner acquitted the Liberal leader, who had previously rescinded the deal.

The relationship with the United States

75% of Canadian exports go to the United States. After Hurricane Trump, today there is a good chemistry between Justin Trudeau and Joe Biden, although the Democrat has an agenda and commitments of his own. At the end of January, Biden signed an executive order to boost American manufacturing. “In the end, it makes the relationship with the United States more predictable. Regarding the “Buy American”[“BuymadeinUS”)unepartieiraauxÉtats-UnisetcompliqueralescénariopourcertainesentreprisescanadiennesCependantd’autresincitationsserontdestinéesauxconsommateurscequipeutfavorisernosexportations”commenteAntunes[“ComprelohechoenEEUU)unaparteiráalosestadosycomplicaráelescenarioparaalgunascompañíascanadiensesSinembargootrosestímulosestarándirigidosalosconsumidoresalgoquepodráfavorecernuestrasexportaciones”comentaAntunes[«BuymadeinUS»)unepartieiraauxÉtats-UnisetcompliqueralescénariopourcertainesentreprisescanadiennesCependantd’autresincitationsserontdestinéesauxconsommateurscequipeutfavorisernosexportations»commenteAntunes[”ComprelohechoenEEUU)unaparteiráalosestadosycomplicaráelescenarioparaalgunascompañíascanadiensesSinembargootrosestímulosestarándirigidosalosconsumidoresalgoquepodráfavorecernuestrasexportaciones”comentaAntunes

Another decision by Biden that Trudeau did not like was the revocation of permits for the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline, designed to send crude from the Canadian province of Alberta to American refineries. Biden then announced that between 50% and 52% of US emissions would be reduced by 2030 from 2005 levels. Ottawa had calculated that it would do the same between 32% and 40%, although Trudeau said in the last climate summit, held in April. virtually, which would seek to increase it to 45%. Different voices doubt that this is an achievable goal. “The main obstacle to Canada’s climate ambitions is our oil and gas production,” said Catherine Abreu, director of Climate Action Network Canada.

A “dance partner” for the Prime Minister

Trudeau says he doesn’t want an election in a pandemic unless the opposition continues to distrust his government. There are various readings on this subject. “This is a ‘strong’ minority government, since it only needs the support of one of the three opposition parties,” says Béland. Political analyst Chantal Hebert considered in The Toronto Star that the Liberal minority government has been particularly productive, as it has consistently found a “dance partner” in the opposition for almost all of its key initiatives, even in projects outside of the pandemic. “The search for a majority has a lot more to do with the convenience of the ruling party than with the imperative need to provide better governance to Canadians,” he wrote.

Béland believes that the opposition parties have no interest in bringing about the fall of the government. “It is not certain that there will be an election in a few months, but the improvement in the health situation and the acceleration of the vaccination, combined with an anticipation of the polls, could convince the liberals to find a way to call an election and try to get the majority government back, ”he said. Two recent polls put the Liberal Party ahead of the Conservatives by six percentage points, on the limit of the minimum number of seats they need for a parliamentary majority.

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