Carlos Melconian: "The Macroeconomic Agenda of the IMF is Endless"

The director of MacroView and former director of the National Bank, Carlos Melconian, spoke about the macroeconomic program of the International Monetary Fund that he calls
Flintstones Plan because it is "simple and rudimentary" and it is "incontinent" and that whoever is elected president should discuss a new program.

"We need to see how the agreement continues, how a new program is discussed and whether it is with or without money.The macroeconomic program of the" Flintstones plan "is endless and the pbadage of "Flint" in the short term in the medium term is very similar, "Melconian said at the opening of the" Week of Management "organized by the Institute for Business Development of Argentina (IDEA).

The economist added that the country would surely need more IMF disbursements. "I do not expect the country to have a market on December 10, which means that the answer is that we will have to ask for money." The Fund lent the country 13 times its quota. , which, if Argentina asks for more, it becomes Greece and this comes from the hand of an extensive program of facilities with structural reforms such as the reform of work and pensions " , he added.

Beyond that, he said that the year 2020 is uncertain depending on how the transition takes place on the foreign exchange market, debt and bank deposits with the reserves of the Central Bank. "There is only one mouth of $ 59,000 million, of which $ 37,000 million is available for foreign exchange market demand ($ 14,000 million or $ 15,000 million); dollars ($ 14,000 million), Paying the debt that is almost zero, and then you have the generic IMF disbursement card of June 2018 for the reinforcement of the reserves of $ 7 billion.Here, the game is played, it's the transition, "he said.

And he sees more problems in the debt market because the financial needs and sources of financing are negative ($ 6.9 billion) – still part of the Fund's US $ 5,400 million disbursement – to which we owe add that Letes and Lecaps should
roll. "We have trouble with the debt even if the 5400 million US dollars come in. The joker covers the holes, do not look otherwise," he said.

Finally, he stated that there was a contradiction between "asking re-election and continuing the Flintstones plan that generates more inflation and less activity" and that the only possibility that Macri wins is that Alberto Fernández lost votes.

"The agenda of December 10 if Macri wins is that he adopts the same policy or that he adopts a different policy. For me, it's more the same thing. If Alberto Fernández wins, there will in principle be a dispute over electricity that could be resolved in the province of Buenos Aires and then the moderation will depend on the results. What is moderation? More foreign exchange regulation without stocks and see where to issue money while maintaining the budget deficit, but they want the one that leaves, "he explained and noted that, just as it happens, what will happen after December 10 will not be final.

IN ADDITION