Catalonia goes to the polls with fear of the coronavirus and …

From Madrid.Exhausted by a process that promised an impossible independence that has paralyzed the administration since 2012 and with the prospect that the ballot boxes will not give a result that will unblock the situation, the Catalans come this Sunday vote in an unprecedented situation. One day before the polls, the greatest uncertainty hangs over the actual holding of the electoral process and the possibility of setting up the polling stations.

The last days, long queues in front of the headquarters of the electoral commissions of citizens appointed to chair the tables who came to present briefs asking that they be exempted from the obligation to attend. In Spain, failing to show up to comply with this civic obligation involves an electoral offense that can lead to significant fines and penalties of up to two years in prison.

But if being part of a table when the draw intended is compulsory, going to vote is not and that is why we expect there to be a historic abstention. As well as In the last election a record turnout was recorded, with almost 80 percent, the forecast is that this time there will also be a record but in the opposite direction. Most likely, the turnout will drop by at least 20 points.

But turnout won’t be the only difference between the 2017 elections and this year’s. The precedents were marked by the unprecedented triumph of Citizens, the party which claims to be liberal and which at the time aspired to challenge the PP for the direction of the political space of the right. It was the first time that a non-nationalist formation managed to be voted the most in the elections for the autonomous government of Catalonia.

However, it was a futile triumph. As expected, the independence parties, JuntsxCat Yes Republican left (Conservatives first, quit second) joined their deputies to form an absolute parliamentary majority with which they succeeded in forming a government. But this alliance ended in a rupture.

The two formations, which led the unilateral declaration of independence of 2017, before the elections of that year, had to face the consequences of this challenge for the state in different ways. The head of JuntsxCat, Carles Puigdemont, fled and is still at large in Brussels. Oriol Junqueras, d’Esquerra, remained and was sentenced to prison. It was only now that he started to leave with prison permits. Their positions in national politics are also diametrically opposed. Those of Puigdemont are fierce opponents of the government of Pedro SanchezEsquerra supported the Socialists in fundamental votes, such as nomination and budgets. However, the fact that the two have a long list of mutual grievances that blame each other in no way precludes their re-agreement during the formation of a government. They likely will if the numbers indicate it.

The Socialists have bet big to try to prevent this alliance. They presented themselves as candidates for Salvador Illa, the Minister of Health who led the fight against the pandemic and who left office to run for office. The PSC, Catalan version of PSOE, hopes to gain political gain from the great media exposure Illa has enjoyed over the past year, during which he has built a reputation as a politician with dialogue and capable of building bridges, precisely what a community split in two between separatists and constitutionalists needs. Polls place him as a possible candidate with the most votes, pushing the Socialists from fourth to first force, but no one is ruling out the same happening to him. Inés Arrimadas, the candidate from Ciudadanos four years ago, who could not even present a government option after the alliance of nationalists.

If Illa cannot agree with Esquerra, who has already argued that she has no plans to do so, she will have few options. Common we can, Catalan franchise of Can we, it will barely stroke, at best, 10 percent. The figures do not give Catalonia grounds for repeating the pact that keeps Pedro Sánchez in central government. The possibility of a parliamentary card coming out of the ballot box, making it impossible to form a government and leading to an electoral rehearsal, is on the table.

On the right, the unknowns are in capitals. Ciudadanos is expected to collapse, which could drop from 25% of four years ago to less than 10, and it is taken for granted that the far right of Vox will enter Parliament with force, overtaking votes and seats Popular festival, which would be a disaster for the main opposition party at the national level.