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The economist warns that if Macri succeeds, inflation could be kept at 2% per month but if he wins the Kirchner, he could have run
he ex minister of Economíat On Sunday Cavallo consider What the climate econormico current increases the the chances of What the President Mauritius Macri turn reelected and "is likely What the l & # 39; inflationornot I know hold in the surroundings of 2% monthly and the slow reactivationornot of the economyíat Carry onúe".
Without however, Yes the result of the STEP insinúat a possible triumph of Kirchnerism in the general, "is possible What I know produce nail run exchange rate before of the the elections of October" warns the economist in his blog.
"The majoríat of the badysts políticos, sure all the What prefer What to win Macri, hold What in the STEP I know play, in first place, the to come up of system republican in the Argentina. Me hold What I know play first the to come up econormico and, as result of effect What the result of the STEP What to have sure the junction econormica, beat or no, in to play, the to come up institutional" manifesto.
Cavallo retains What in July"the l & # 39; inflationornot monthly I know ubiqueor around of 2% the indicators of activity confirmed What the set backornot it seems to have touch background and the trade outside to follow without show vigor exporter durable in the the weather. This climate econormico increases the the chances of What the President Macri turn reelected and can rule while the prorscam four atnotyou. But the investigations no they are conclusive and justednot aftereds of the STEP I know canat to predict, with minor margin of fault, the possible result final".
"Yeah of the interpretationornot of result of the STEP increases the probability of a triumph of the forformula Mauritius Macri–Miguel ATangel Pichetto, is likely What the l & # 39; inflationornot I know hold in the surroundings of 2% monthly and the slow reactivationornot of the economyíat Carry onúe, with the price of Dorlar moviedto swim of 45 at 50 pesos in what What substraction of atnotor" exhibits.
And add: "Yeah Macri triumphs, I know open for 2020 potential of the growth with the continuity of process of deflationornot. But Yes no I know present change significant in the redgroan monetary and no I know puts a lot sonotor in to take off the partiality anti exporter of the economyíat, no he can wait for a the growth superior at 1% and nail l & # 39; inflationornot by under of 25% annual. In this case, beat very difíeyelash What the government I realized support popular and político for the complex reforms pension and job What the MFIs consider essential for keep on going his program".
"No isat closed the possibility of What the government of Macri, reelected, decide to bring at out nail good reform of redgroan monetary and exchange rate, in the addressornot of system bimonetario of Byú (or the dollarizationornot complete of the economyíat) and, at even the weather, eliminate of rennet the partiality anti exporter of the economyíat, atúnot with a true relaxation of the goals prosecutors. In this case, the the growth he can arrive at be of 3% and the l & # 39; inflationornot of order of 18% the results What giveía at government support popular and político as for approve the three reforms, the pension, the job and the of State, What they are essential for transform at the stability and at the growth in windoworless permanent" manifesto.
he economist as wellednot raises the other opciornot: "Yeah the result of the STEP insinúat a possible triumph of Kirchnerism in the general, is possible What I know produce nail run exchange rate before of the the elections of October, what What accentuateat the potential of triumph for the forformula Alberto Fernatndez Cristina Kirchner. Yeah triumphs the Kirchnerism, I know be there product or no before the run exchange rate and explodedornot inflationary, the price of Dorlar to climbat all what necessary for produce nail liquefactionornot of the the debts in pesos of sector público and of sector private".
"For What the liquefactionornot reach at the LETTERS and at the deporsitos in dorlares is likely What I know decree nail pesificationornot compulsive of the contracts in dorlares subscribed low law Argentina" exhibits.
"he new government treatat of What the people to interpret What the explodedornot devaluation e inflationary, with his coherent effect of deterioration of Income real of workers and retired, is the responsibility of government previous What indebtednessor at sector público. The strategists econormicos of Kirchnerism they think What so of is explodedornot devaluation e inflationary, beat possible enforce a plan of stabilizationornot and the growth as the What applyor Lavagna at split of second semester of 2002" warns.
"I know useatnot controls of the prices, controls exchange, freezing of prices and restrictions quantitative so much at the the imports as at the exports, trying, at the time, Stop the transfer at the prices of the devaluationornot initial and control the rhythm subsequent of devaluationornot" sentence the former minister.
And concludes: "The substantial the differences enter the situationornot of the economyíat at in the beginning of 2020 with the What to existíat at in the beginning of 2002, to permit to anticipate What the reiterationornot of the políticas applied then, in the current circumstances, to bringatnot ratpromptly at the hyperinflaciornot".
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