Chavismo will once again have a parliamentary majority | …

From Caracas

Chavismo will again have a majority in the National Assembly (AN) after five years. From January 5, when the new legislature is sworn in, it will have the majority of the 277 seats. The spectrum of opposition forces, on the other hand, will face a framework of fragmented and heterogeneous minorities.

This is how the photograph of the legislative elections remained, where the Grand Pôle Patriotique (GPP), the alliance led by the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (Psuv) obtained 4,277,926 votes, for a total of 68.43%, as reported in the second bulletin of the National Electoral Council released Monday afternoon, with 98.63 percent of the votes counted.

The result was not recognized by governments which had predicted that they would not, such as the United States, Canada, Great Britain, the European Union, the Lima Group. -without signature of Argentina- and Uruguay. Therefore, they will maintain the recognition of the “interim presidency” of Juan GuaidóAlthough there is a new NA and the one that Guaidó briefly presided over, on which his figure as president was made, fulfilled his mandate.

Statements of ignorance were as expected. Positions were decided in advance, regardless of what happened in Sunday’s session, in which, with more than 300 international observers, no incidents or irregularities were recorded. Recognition, on the other hand, has come from several countries, such as Russia, Bolivia and Cuba and, it is expected to be extended in the coming hours with some governments not yet doing so publicly. .

The international balance of power has remained unchanged, and sGovernments that did not recognize Sunday’s result will surely recognize as valid the “popular consultation” led in the country by Guaidó, which started this Monday in a virtual way via a website and a mobile application, and which will be done on the 12th in person.

The “consultation” will be a mechanism by which Guaidó will seek to show that he has obtained a social mandate to continue the “interim presidency” under the argument of the “administrative continuity” of the NA which will end on January 5th. It will not be the first time that the opposition – now fragmented into four parts – has called for a consultation on a similar key: in July 2017, the right had organized a plebiscite asking the Bolivarian National Armed Forces to join in the overthrow of Maduro ., build parallel institutions and form a “government of national unity”.

On this occasion, in a context of great mobilization of the right in an attempt to overthrow the government, several of the plebiscite ballot boxes were burnt by the same opposition, and the result was not translated into concrete facts. Two weeks later, the National Constituent Assembly was elected – which will end in December – which functioned as a turning point at the time of the conflict.

From now on, it is also probable that the “popular consultation” will have no effect inside the country, will not raise an appeal or an expectation despite the story brandished by Guaidó and the right on social networks, central space for building the illusion of an “interim government.” Guaidó’s ability to mobilize, with a few exceptions where it seemed he could reconvene the street, has been failing since April 2019.

These are the last political movements of a particularly complex year 2020, even if, as we know, each year presents a great complexity in the conflict in Venezuela, which is both national and international. One of the central elements which marked the dynamics of the year was the difficulty, sometimes critical, of supplying gasoline, water, gas and electricity. – services in the hands of the state – a situation developed within the framework of the policy of “maximum pressure” of the United States by the economic blockade.

This had an impact on Sunday’s vote, where the turnout was 31%, vsThere is a small flow of votes from an opposition which to a large extent has entered the electoral field as part of the reconfiguration of the opposition map. As for Chavismo, obtaining 4,277,926 votes was in turn about 1,300,000 votes below its minimum during the period 2013 to date., which took place in the 2015 legislative elections, with 5,625,248 votes.

This loss of voice, in addition to economic / material variables, seems to indicate a need for revision in the same space of Chavism, at its various levels, in particular because of the effects of wear and tear of a government / leadership in charge of the country for several years, of the protracted conflict that anchored the policy, a tendency to discursive repetition and a distant language of the problems of Everyday Life – “sometimes it seems like we deny reality,” Maduro said last Thursday.

These will be elements that will be part of a 2021 that begins with the inauguration of the new NA and the unresolved question of what will happen to the Guaidó sector beyond social media. It has been hypothesized that some members of the “interim government” leave Venezuela, or, also, that others, before the inevitable precipice, choose to return to the electoral field, that is to say to the elections. of mayors and governors that will take place during the year.