Chile and Bolivia, reflections of a turbulent period

Having macroeconomics under control is not synonymous with social stability. This can be witnessed by Chile and Bolivia, two countries that are now the center of attention in Latin America because of conflicts of different appearance.

Sebastián Piñera and Evo Morales, anchored in antagonistic ideological positions, were hailed for associating growth and poverty reduction in their respective countries.

However, the social epidemic on the other side of the mountain chain exposed the anger of the middle class with a government that, despite the balance of their numbers, was unable to reduce an inequality impossible to hide: one percent of the population accumulates 25% of the wealth generated in the country.

The discontent in Bolivia began in February 2016, when Morales ignored a referendum that prevented him from running for his fourth term. On Sunday, when the provisional count indicated that he would go to the second round with his rival Carlos Mesa because the gap between the two did not exceed 10 points, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal suspended the control without giving any notice. ; explanations. The final tally was resumed yesterday in the midst of opposition fraud claims and concerns of the OAS, calling for transparency.

The feeling that the requirements (economic, in Chile, institutional, in Bolivia) are ignored increases mistrust towards political elites and, hence, towards democracy.

This does not happen only in these countries. Remember the indigenous uprisings in Ecuador, the dissolution of Congress in Peru, the fall of Dilma Rousseff which caused the irruption of Bolsonaro in Brazil or the endless inflation of Argentina. The region offers a panorama of constant boiling.

"We must be attentive to Bolivia. I predict that if the Court ratifies Evo Morales' victory in the first round, we would end up with a political crisis of great intensity and with a lot of violence, "warned international policy specialist Daniel Zovatto. .

L & # 39; spark

A few hours after Piñera, Chile was "an oasis" in the region for "the growth of its economy, the creation of jobs, the increase of wages and the maintenance of the macroeconomic balance", his government became the first since the dictatorship of Pinochet declaring curfew following the violent demonstrations against the increase of the ticket of metro of Santiago.

The skyrocketing transport is just the spark that has ignited the powder keg in which a country has become a country where the demonstrations have left 15 dead, hundreds wounded and thousands of people arrested as a result of clashes with the police.

"The Chilean problem is linked to the deep discontent of the middle class and the lower middle class who, although out of poverty, live in a very precarious situation, with very low wages (on average 500 000 pesos, about 600 dollars ). They do not allow you to have a decent standard of living because services such as electricity, water or tolls are very expensive and pensions are very low. In addition, health and education are also very expensive, forcing the middle and lower class sectors to borrow heavily to achieve a certain standard of living, "said Zovatto.

"Subjective elements such as perceptions of inequality and belonging can affect trust in institutions and democracy. It is important to note that the perception that voting has some influence – or is a citizen's duty – has steadily declined in recent years, as has confidence in institutions, "said a study by the Center. for Conflict Studies. Social Cohesion of Chile.

The doors to the outside, the trans-Andean country is quite similar to the oasis of which Piñera spoke. According to journalist Daniel Matamala, the Chilean economy is considered the most open in the world, its GDP is the highest in South America ($ 25,978) and since 1990, poverty has dropped from 38, 6% to 7.8%. His democracy is stable and, after the dictatorship, each elected president has been able to fulfill his mandate.

Increases

Of course, the reality is different.

"We presume (and rightly so!) That solar energy is decontaminating and reducing costs, but at the same time, Chilean electricity bills have increased by 19.7% this year. One of the causes of this delay is that the electricity distributors have a fabulous profitability guaranteed by the law of 10% ", wrote Matamala on the site of CNN Chile, where he declared that the price of the houses had increased to 150% in the last 10 years. .

The protests began Monday of last week and escalated into violence and scale. On Saturday, Piñera decreed the state of emergency and decided to suspend the increase of the metro ticket.

"The Piñera government is seeking to restore order with the police and the army, but it will also have to take other measures that can provide a social response. Political leaders have been overwhelmed by the demands of the citizens, "Zovatto analyzed.

Yesterday, while in the street a crowd asked for his resignation, Piñera summoned opposition leaders at the Palacio de La Moneda to find a way out of the crisis.

The leftist parties refused to participate because of the government 's refusal to suspend the state of emergency.

In the midst of the government's lack of expertise to control the street, a sound of the first Chilean lady, Cecilia Morel, was leaked, which admitted that the executive was "absolutely overwhelmed" by the situation and has compared the demonstrations to an "extraterrestrial invasion".

"The strategy is to break the entire supply chain, food, even in some areas, water, pharmacies. They tried to burn a hospital and tried to get to the airport (…). It's like a foreign invasion, an extraterrestrial, and we do not have the tools to fight it, "said Morel in an anguished voice. She then clarified that she was feeling "overwhelmed by the circumstances" and regretted that a personal audio file had filtered as though it was about the government's overall condition from her husband.

"The comment of the wife of Piñera shows an awareness of the fact that Chile that existed a few days ago has ceased to exist. There is a new Chile which, to succeed, will have to rewrite the social contract, rethink relations. I think that the solution to this crisis depends on several factors. On the one hand, the fact that the government is more empathetic with what is happening in the country has therefore cost in the beginning and tried to give a military solution to a political problem. Over the days, he understood that the political, social and economic problem did not require a military solution, "said Zovatto.

For the Regional Director of International Idea for Latin America and the Caribbean, the government needs to change the legislative agenda, reduce the number of parliamentarians, lower the salaries of MPs and senators and prioritize social issues. "All measures to restore the confidence of people in the elite and aimed at reducing high levels of inequality and privilege," he concluded.

In figures: social conflict

Figures that describe the situation of violence in Chile.

15 dead since the beginning of the demonstrations. Four died in the hands of soldiers deployed in the country's cities.

1,333 People were arrested throughout the protests, including 181 children or adolescents. There are 88 wounded people hospitalized.

12 Complaints of allegations of torture and illegitimate restraints by security forces have been brought to justice.

The 5 keys: the crisis in Chile

From the tariff dispute to the social epidemic.

1. The trigger. On October 6, an increase in the number of passages in the metro caused a social outcry.

2. Protest. On Monday the 14th, thousands of people entered without paying for the metro. The action has spread through social networks.

3. violence After five days of demonstrations, Friday the 18th intensified. There were looting and fires.

4. urgency. The Chilean government declared the state of emergency and curfew and announced that it was withdrawing the ticket increase.

5. No solution. Yesterday, they have already added 15 dead since the beginning of the demonstrations. The demonstrations and the curfew followed.