China and Russia, how long will they support the Venezuelan dictatorship?

Venezuela continues to be the scene of excessive excesses. The Russian military letter is a final example and raises, among other things, the risk that Nicolás Maduro believes that this endorsement gives him a carte blanche to reinforce repressive measures, systematic violations of human rights or the ability to carry undermining the integrity of the people. National Assembly and in particular the parliamentary immunities of Juan Guaidó.

Also continue to ignore international pressure and especially the actions of the Organization of American States (OAS) and the Lima Group. Both warned that this military presence was inadmissible and threatened regional peace and security. This emphasis places the issue of Venezuela on the agenda of the UN Security Council's powers.

It is disappointing that Moscow is ready to be ill disposed with the representative countries of Latin America and the Caribbean to favor an illegitimate regime at the terminal stadium. The question is to what extent the Kremlin will provide this disproportionate support.

It is also difficult to know whether Vladimir Putin values ​​Nicolás Maduro to the same degree as Basher al-Assad and will provide him with military support equivalent to that received by Syria. Until now, the relations between Moscow and Caracas were not comparable to those maintained with Damascus: even the abundant Russian military equipment transferred to Venezuela does not have the same military importance. Except the temporary presence of a combined naval force and two supersonic Su 160 bombers, there would be no Russian weapon of last generation still located in Venezuela. For the moment, neither Moscow has sold weapons that could be described as destabilizing. The S400 missile site does not appear to have materialized. Neither installation of Russian satellite navigation system Glonbad.

For the moment, the Kremlin 's attitude seems more like a piece intended to irritate Washington and to obtain benefits on other fronts than the defense of a geostrategic interest. Statements by Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov on the respect of the respective areas of influence allude to this possibility. In addition, the fact that Russia would replace Venezuela as a supplier of oil to the United States. Since 2011, after the annexation of Crimea, which has not sold a gross volume flow inaugurated in the first quarter of 2019.

In this context, in the Cold War style, the United States and Russia must explore the possibilities. The recent talks between Foreign Ministers Lavrov and Pompeo allow this interpretation. However, Russia faces a multi-point provocative game that can dangerously outflank. The opening of a Russian detachment in El Sombrero, in the state of Guarico, could be an example. It would be the tenth Russian military base in the world, including Cuba. Today, it has military badets in 17 countries, including 3 in Latin America (Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela).

It is regrettable that China and Russia, which are interested in developing constructive relations with Latin America and the Caribbean, are finally the central support of the Venezuelan dictatorship. and try to discredit the Inter-American Democratic Charter. Also the actions of the OAS and the Lima group. The United Nations Security Council session in which they exercised the veto to block humanitarian aid is an example of an attitude that both countries should urgently review. We hope that they do not hinder the badistance that will soon be provided by the International Red Cross.