China builds over 100 new intercontinental missile silos, sounds global alarm bells

China has started building what independent experts say over 100 new silos for ICBM in a desert near the northwestern town of Yumen, a career in construction that this could be a sign of a significant expansion of Beijing’s nuclear capabilities.

Commercial satellite images obtained by researchers at James Martin Center for Non-Proliferation Studies, in Monterrey (California), show the work that is in progress in dozens of locations along a grid covering hundreds of square kilometers of barren land in China’s Gansu province. The 119 almost identical sites contain characteristics that mirror those of the existing launch facilities for China’s arsenal of nuclear warhead ballistic missiles.

The acquisition of more than 100 new missile silos, if completed, would represent a historic change for China., a country believed to have a relatively modest arsenal between 250 Yes 350 nuclear weapons. The actual number of new missiles destined for these silos is unknown, but it could be much lower. China has deployed decoy silos in the past.

During the War Cold, The United States devised a plan to move its ICBMs through a series of silos in a sort of nuclear cheat game, to ensure that Soviet war planners they could never know exactly where the missiles were at any given time.

The construction boom suggests a major effort to bolster the credibility of China’s nuclear deterrent, said researcher Jeffrey Lewis, an expert on China’s nuclear arsenal. Lewis, with his colleague Decker Eveleth, discovered the construction sites after weeks of analysis of photos from commercial satellites in northwestern China. He called the scale of the project “incredible”.

“If you add up the elevators under construction elsewhere in China, the total comes to about 145 elevators under construction.”Lewis, director of the East Asia non-proliferation program at the Center for Non-Proliferation Studies, part of the Middlebury Institute for International Studies, said in a summary of his findings provided to The Washington Post. “We believe China is expanding its nuclear forces in part to maintain a deterrent force that can survive a US first strike in sufficient numbers to defeat US missile defenses.”.

The discovery follows recent warnings from Pentagon officials about the rapid progress of China’s nuclear capability. Admiral Charles Richard, who commands US nuclear forces, said at a congressional hearing in April that “impressive extension“Was underway in China, including a growing arsenal of ICBM Yes new launchers mobile missiles that can be easily concealed from satellites. In addition, the Chinese Navy has added new submarines capable of manufacturing nuclear weapons to its growing fleet.

Reported silo construction project could provide China with another way to hide its most powerful weapons. The construction sites detected on the satellite photos are arranged in two immense bands which cover parts of a desert basin which extends to the west and south-west of Yumen, a city of 170,000 inhabitants located on the ancient Chinese Silk Road.

Each site is separated from its neighbors by about three kilometers, and many sites are hidden by a large domed roof., following a practice observed at known missile silo construction sites elsewhere in China. In places where the dome is not in place, construction crews can be seen dig a characteristic circular pit in the desert floor. Another job appears to be a partially constructed control center.

Lewis said the silos are likely intended for a Chinese ICBM known as DF-41, what can you take several warheads and hit targets up to 9,300 miles, potentially putting the mainland the United States. Major excavation work at the sites began earlier this year, although preparations had probably been underway for months, Lewis said.

Emails and faxes requesting comments from the Chinese Foreign Ministry in Beijing and the Chinese Embassy in Washington received no response. White House and Department of Defense officials Did not respond to questions about the silo construction project.

Missile silos are easily detectable by trained image analysts and are vulnerable to destruction by precision-guided missiles in the early hours of nuclear war.. For these reasons, Lewis sees the silo construction project as part of a deterrence strategy enlarged by a country whose nuclear arsenal is eclipsed by those of the United States and Russia, which together have more than 11,000 nuclear warheads.

Instead of participating in a costly arms race with Washington and Moscow, China has traditionally adopted a doctrine of “limited deterrence” which gives priority to a small but robust nuclear arsenal to ensure Beijing’s ability to retaliate against any opponent in the event of an attack.

However, in recent years, Chinese authorities have complained that your country’s nuclear deterrence loses its credibility because of nuclear modernization programs proposed or already underway in Russia and the United States. Beijing has resisted calls to join new arms control talks lest the new limits will forever entrench its nuclear power status in Beijing. second category compared to Washington and Moscow.

Photos of the Gansu construction project were provided to Lewis and Eveleth by the satellite trading company Planet, which provided a continuous stream of up-to-date images showing the progress of each job over time. Based on his analysis, Lewis said there was “a very good chance that China is planning a shell game.” in which it hides a relatively small number of warheads in a network of silos. Yet, he said, the sudden appearance of so many new launch sites could increase pressure on U.S. officials to accelerate efforts to modernize the American arsenal.

“We are facing an arms race driven in large part by American investments and missile defense”, Lewis said. The Pentagon has announced plans for a full update of US nuclear weapons and launch systems over the next two decades, including a new air-launched cruise missile and at least two new types of warheads.

In February, Secretary of State Antony Blinken promised in a statement that the Biden administration would “pursue arms control to reduce the dangers of China’s modern and growing nuclear arsenal”. He did not explain how this goal would be achieved, but said the administration would seek “effective arms control that increases stability, transparency and predictability, while reducing the risks of costly and dangerous arms races ”.

The Washington Post

* Joby Warrick joined the Washington Post’s national staff in 1996. He has served on the Post’s national security and investigative teams, and writes on the Middle East, terrorism and the proliferation of arms. He is the author of three books, including “Black Flags: The Rise of ISIS”, which received the 2016 Pulitzer Prize for non-fiction.