China will buy more soybeans in Brazil and less in the United States.

The first US government forecast that incorporates the consequences of its trade war with China on the agricultural sector comes to a simple conclusion about soybeans. China will import less, US soybean producers Brazil will lose business and Brazil will benefit.

Beijing increased the customs tax by 25 percentage points on soybeans, cotton and other US products in response to tariffs imposed by the Donald Trump administration to Chinese goods. Soy is the agricultural product that the United States China is a major importer of soybeans, accounting for more than 60% of world trade, the extent that it has taken rocked the markets. Soybean futures prices have collapsed to levels where many North American producers will lose money if they do not receive federal aid.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), in monthly estimates of supply and demand released last Thursday, has reduced its forecast for Chinese soybean imports by 103 million at 95 million tonnes in the coming months of the campaign, its forecast of US soybean exports of 62.3 million to 55 was lowered by 11%. , 5 million tons and raised its estimate of Brazilian exports from 73 million tons to 75 million tons, a record.

New Chinese tariffs have increased US soybeans from 13% to 38%, according to the Soya Export Council of America. The tax began to reorient trade flows even before they came into effect on July 6.

Robert Johansson, chief economist at the USDA, said that China would face higher prices for soybeans. "We hope they will buy something in the United States, but they will obviously prefer to do it where they will not have to pay any tariffs." In general, we expect a decline in demand. "

50% higher than last year, according to a USDA report." In the soybean season that began on September 1, US oilseed exports to China were lower than the previous year. A fifth at the same time last year.

Marcel Smits, CFO of Cargill, the world's largest agricultural trader He said in an interview that China is canceling US soybean purchases and that non-Chinese customers are attracted to the United States. "What is happening on the market is that everyone is positioning themselves to optimize their flow compared to the current structures of tariffs and prices", explains Smits.

With the fall in soybean prices, US producers part of the unsold oilseed decided to save it. "Sales of the rest of the 2017 volume decreased significantly because US producers retain production, "said Mr. Smits.

Rabobank, the leading bank that finances agricultural businesses, said the revised estimates of the USDA in China, there will be the first annual decline in soybean imports in 15 years. It was "distinctly bearish" in terms of US soybean prices, which fell 2.6% on Friday to its lowest level in 10 years, the institution said.

Jon Spencer of Gresham Investment Management, a commodity fund administrator in New York City, said it is more likely that the growing trade conflict is forcing countries to negotiate a commitment. "If that happens, I think we will see a jump in the price of soybeans, not just a peak."

Sonny Perdue, Secretary of Agriculture, said that USDA economists calculate the effects of the disturbances While it calculates federal aid to farmers affected by declining price.

Johansson stated that his agency has done exercises to calculate the impact of rates and that he will have better information when more accurate estimates are compiled last month. cultures in the United States

Translation: Mariana I. Oriolo