China's power endangers US military domination in the Pacific

Experts have long been talking about China's rapid military modernization, which they call "rising power."

But this badysis may be outdated. China is not a rising power. It has already come up and, in many ways, is now a challenge for the United States in a number of military areas.

This is the conclusion of a new report from the Center for United States Studies at the University of Sydney in Australia.

They warn that the US defense strategy in the Indo-Pacific region "is plunged into an unprecedented crisis" and that Washington may have difficulty defending its allies against China.

"The United States no longer enjoys military primacy in the Indo-Pacific," notes the report, "and its ability to maintain a favorable balance of power is increasingly uncertain."

The report points to the extraordinary arsenal of Beijing missiles that threatens the essential bases of the United States and its allies.

These facilities, he says, "could become useless with precision attacks in the early hours of a conflict."

China is not a global superpower like the United States. In fact, its military ambitions are uncertain (although this may also change as it gradually develops a network of ports and bases abroad).

For the moment, its global reach is much more dependent on the power of its economy.

China does not have the "seal of proselytism" – the feeling of having a mission abroad – which during the 20th century saw the United States fight for world domination.

This country also does not have the capacity of "soft power" of the United States. There is no Chinese equivalent in jeans, Hollywood or hamburgers to encourage people to share their values.

In fact, according to several clues, Washington's military power still exceeds that of Beijing.

Effective strategy

The nuclear arsenal of Washington (and actually Moscow) is considerably larger than that of Beijing.

The United States still retains a technological advantage in key areas such as intelligence gathering, ballistic missile defense and the latest generation of fighter jets.

It also has a network of deep alliances in Asia and NATO in Europe.

China does not have any of these types of alliance systems, but it is rapidly eroding Washington's technical advantage.

And in any case, what matters to China is Asia and what it sees in terms of expansion in its own garden. Two key factors – concentration and proximity – mean that in Asia, China is already a superpower capable of competing with the United States.

China has studied the capabilities and conduct of the war in the United States and has developed an effective strategy to mitigate the traditional sources of US military power, particularly the powerful aircraft carrier attack groups of the US Navy, central element of Washington's ability to project its military strength.

With what is called in the military discourse an "anti-access and denial of zone" approach, China has focused on a range of sensors and weapon systems with which it hopes to force US forces to operate as far as possible. from his own ribs.

At first, it was a defensive stance. But more and more badysts believe that China has the ability to take the confident step of deterring any likely US reaction and getting out of it.

According to the Australian study, "China's counter-intervention systems have compromised the ability of the United States to project their power into the Indo-Pacific, increasing the risk that Beijing will use a limited force to win the victory in front of the United States can answer, defying the American security guarantees ".

China's goal in times of crisis is to prevent the United States from accessing the "first chain of islands" (the South China Sea bordered by a line starting from low of Japan, includes Taiwan and pbades west of the Philippines).

But it also aims to restrict access to the "second chain of islands" with weapons that can even reach the US Guam bases. This general strategy can be supported by Chinese planes and ground missiles.

Of course, the Pentagon is not aware of the Chinese challenge. After decades of counter-insurgency conflicts, the US armed forces are being restructured and re-equipped for renewed competition from the major powers.

"Obsolete state of mind"

In the Cold War, the Soviet Union was at the center of concern. Today, it is mainly China.

However, the report from the University of Sydney asks if Washington is sufficiently focused on this task.

According to him, "it is likely that an outdated superpower mentality in the circles that govern US foreign policy limits Washington's ability to restrict other global commitments or to effect the necessary strategic exchanges for succeed in the Indo-Pacific ".

The money will be spent on new weapons and research. But the task is huge.

"The United States has a reduced strength that is not sufficiently prepared, equipped or positioned to exercise significant competitive power," the report says, warning that a delay in other priorities of the modernization risked "to exceed its budget capacity".

It is a sober document drafted by a prestigious institution of one of Washington's closest allies in the region.

China feels clearly invested, which is reflected in the tone of its recently published defense projects.

President Xi Jinping has decided not to confront President Trump in the trade war that the two countries have, but to adopt a much more determined stance, both in pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong and in the old claims. from China to Taiwan.

China's military rise coinciding with its growing economic power was inevitable. But some badysts fear that President Trump has aggravated a difficult situation.

In the United States, many believe that the time has come to confront China on trade issues, but the way the United States is acting has led many experts to fear that Washington will simply lose the war. commercial.

In general, Trump's foreign policy administration often lacks a clear strategic focus and is prone to whims posted on Twitter.

On the other hand, China knows exactly where it wants to go and has the strategy and resources to do it. In fact, for all intents and purposes, he may have already arrived there.

BBC