Chinese patience: Beijing tactics against Trump's trade offensive

"If you want to talk, we can talk." "They want to fight, we will fight." The proclamation, published this week under the title of an editorial in the Chinese official media, shortly before Donald Trump does not increase tariffs on 5,700 products from the Asian country, poses a false dichotomy: China and the United States can talk and fight at the same time. In fact, that's what they do. In the Chinese government's vision, conflict is part of the "new normality" of the relationship and, as in any long-running conflict, there are moments of appeasement and moments of struggle without quarter.
The last peaceful chapter took place five months ago in Buenos Aires, during the last G20 summit, during which Trump and Xi Jinping announced a truce in escalating tariffs. It lasted little. The US president has raised from the day before yesterday from 10% to 25% customs duties on imports of Chinese origin worth $ 200 billion. The list of products concerned includes food, electronics, cars, chemicals and minerals.
The Chinese government has reacted as it has since the beginning of the trade war: between caution not to compromise the negotiations and firm enough not to agree more than is tolerable. Speak and fight.
The Ministry of Commerce has promised to take "necessary countermeasures", but without specifying which and when. For his part, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, leader of the negotiating team who visited Washington this week, spoke with the Chinese press after the meetings and downplayed the aggressiveness of Trump. "Negotiations have not collapsed," said Liu, considered the "brain" of the Chinese government's economic strategy. In bilateral dialogues, there are inevitably small setbacks. We are cautiously optimistic for the future. "

concerns On the verge of a year, the trade war is already being felt among the owners of small, medium and large Chinese export factories. For the leaders of the Communist Party, the tactical concern is how long will the high tariffs imposed by Trump. The Chinese economy has the impetus to cushion the impact, at least in the short term, but has proved vulnerable.
Although the Beijing approach is not only tactical but also and above all strategic. Chinese diplomacy officials describe the trade war as the stage of a long-term struggle for global hegemony. Under Xi's leadership, the party predicts that China will be the world's leading economic power by 2050. "The clash with the United States was expected, but not so fast," Niu Huayong said. , economist and director of the School of Finance. International Affairs of the Beijing University of Foreign Studies-. Trump has accelerated the times; imposed an unforeseen dynamic. What the Chinese government is looking for is to slow down the confrontation. "
In the last few hours, the Chinese official press has interpreted with extreme caution what happened in Washington and promoted a firm but not spectacular reaction, such as a boycott of American products. The party-controlled media portray China as a calm, neutral power, subject to external pressure; and that, if necessary, "is ready to fight".
As stated during the stock market closing on Friday, the markets still believe in the immediate possibility of an agreement: a reissue of the G20 truce. The optimism is partly due to the fact that Trump has left a grace period, a window to continue negotiations, by determining that maritime cargoes that left China before Friday midnight will not be subject to new fees as long as They will reach the border. United States by June 1st.
But a new agreement would be another respite before returning to the charge. The strategic interests of the two powers seem irreconcilable. The list of US requests to China goes beyond the "red lines" marked by Beijing: it goes claims for the protection of intellectual property and the forced transfer of technology imposed on US companies; amendments to Chinese legislation on the protection of its industry.
According to Shi Yinhong, director of the Center for American Studies at Renmin University, "it is unlikely that the Chinese government will accept all these conditions, which it considers an attempt to prevent the rise of the China as a world power ".