Choose Spain between left and right (with controversial populist contributions)

Sanchez's term was discussed from the beginning, since he was not coming out of the polls but a motion of censure against his predecessor, Mariano Rajoy, whose situation had become untenable after the controversy over the secessionist referendum. Catalan years and a half of government and, finally, by some corruption scandals that hit the Popular Party. Fast reflex, Sanchez requested a motion of censure on June 1 of last year. This was approved and the socialist managed to open the way to power, a maneuver valid in a parliamentary system but the right always blamed him for "golpista". That is why he is now seeking an original legitimacy to prove the slightest doubt.

Here, we do not really talk about the number and percentage of votes on election night, but how many seats each party gets. This, and the ability to make alliances that give the majority, are the measure of success. In this sense, the magic number is 176 seats in the Congress of Deputies.

The latest polling intention poll published by the influential newspaper El País revealed to Sánchez, candidate of the Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE, center-left), a projection of 129 seats; Pablo Casado, Popular Party (PP, Conservative) 75; Albert Rivera, Liberal citizens, 49 years old; to Pablo Iglesias from the left Unidos Podemos 33; and Santiago Abascal, de Vox (xenophobic extreme right), 32.

As you can see, if these predictions were met, the left block (PSOE-Unidos Podemos) and the right-hand block (PP-Cs-Vox) would be far from the necessary majority in Congress. For the right, in addition, add deputies would require a white background with bitter downstream of Vox that is approaching, a party that does not give a party to be radically anti -immigration, defender of a program "weapons for all and all" and who made an adaptation of the bolonarist slogan: "Spain first and foremost".

In this way, all would need the help of minor groups, among which the regional parties, including the rebellious Catalans, who have frozen the Spanish political life of recent years with their independentist claim. More bitter drinks for those who intend to govern this country.

This political moment in Spain can not be understood without taking into account two nodal events of recent years: the serious economic crisis of 2008 and the challenge of the independence of Catalonia.

Podemos is the direct son of the crisis, insofar as it appeared then as a horizontal proposal aimed at giving a way to the claims of the "indignados" who filled the places. But it did not turn out that all the indignant people survived and this path, shaped by the populist literature of the Argentine Ernesto Laclau, found a ceiling for its growth.

Citizens is also the son of this explosion and, in his own way, also Vox. If Podemos received the defection of the disenchanted with a PSOE too identified with the "system", these two were found in the same way in the failures of the PP for its role in this calamity and its ethical collapse. The crisis, which put the issue of immigration on the agenda, ended up being the heart that beat Vox.

To this was added another crisis, the one triggered by the Catalan independence movement.

Rajoy and the PP at the time minimized this separatist challenge; so that was. The PSOE is still wagering in this region on a vague dialogue path, forcing Sanchez again and again to make sure that he will not forgive the pro-independence politicians who are judged today and do not want to to agree to stay in power. with them.

Meanwhile, citizens of Hispanic-Catalan origin have found an axis to try to interfere in the predominance of the Spanish right, which still costs them all their lives because the "new politics" is not everything . And Vox, directly, his essence.

Entrepreneurs "ibex", this is the very first line with which Ámbito Financiero spoke but they preferred not to give their names for this note, they still dream of a broad coalition that unites the PSOE and the citizens. They do not see insurmountable differences between them, apart from the emphasis placed by the former on the preservation of the welfare state and its objective of reducing the tax burden.

Properly considered, the equation of extended social coverage and low taxes generally does not have simple results. However, these businessmen fantasize about this sum as they fear the entrance of what they call "populists" to the government, that it is about Podemos for the one left or Vox for the right one.

With Podemos, the PSOE could reactivate the gene, now recessive but still latent, from the tax hike. With Vox, the PP and the citizens could adopt a "Brazilian" approach that most do not even want to imagine here.

But in the midst of so much alchemy with votes that have not even been issued, another ghost persists: that of a fatal link that maintains viable majorities and keeps the country engaged in debates which make its governability. Such a discussion would be too primitive when it comes to transforming the recovery of the economy into something more, allowing so many working and middle clbad people, many with education and graduate break out of the vicious circle of precarious jobs and wages of one thousand euros.

For better or for worse, Sunday night, these riddles will start to unravel.