Climate change could force the migration of 216 million people | World Bank alert

The World Bank has warned that the adverse effects of climate change could force the migration of up to 216 million people over the next 30 years, including 17 million Latin Americans.

The displacement of people, anticipated by the Washington-based multilateral credit agency, would start to increase from 2030 by water scarcity, declining agricultural production and rising sea levels.

By 2050, according to forecasts, sub-Saharan Africa could have up to 86 million internal climate migrants; East Asia and the Pacific, 49 million; South Asia, 40 million; North Africa, 19 million; Latin America, 17 million, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia, 5 million.

The data comes from the update of the Groundswell report, first published in 2018, which predicted 143 million climate migrants in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Latin America. Now three other regions added: East Asia and the Pacific, North Africa and region comprising Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Juergen Voegele, vice president for sustainable development at the World Bank, said this was a “global estimate” of the magnitude of potential migration, but said “the projection is not set in stone. “.

“If countries now begin to reduce greenhouse gases, close development gaps, restore vital ecosystems and help people adapt, internal climate migration could be reduced by up to 80%, to reach 44 million people by 2050.“he explained.

Instead, without decisive action, there could be climate migration ‘hot spots’ that’ will emerge as early as the next decade and intensify in 2050, as people move out of places where they can no longer live and settle. direct to areas that offer opportunities. “

This trend, he said, could have serious consequences for host countries, which are often unprepared to cope with these migratory flows.

“The trajectory of internal climatic migrations in the next half-century”, concluded the World Bank, it will depend on “our collective action on climate change” and the development that different countries will face “in the years to come”.