Companies remain very cautious when they recruit more employees

For the months of April, May and June, quarter in which the government expects a resumption of economic activity and the prelude to the presidential election, the expectations for creation Jobs only show stability.

Of course, in a context that is always recessive and characterized by signs of volatility in exchange rates, it is not entirely negative, it is almost neutral.

According to the traditional MapowerGroup survey of 800 companies across the country, 79% of people consulted will retain their workforce, while 9% will increase it and 8% will decrease it. This leaves a net employment forecast of + 1% which, adjusted for seasonal variations, remains at + 0%. Translated: Prudence will continue to prevail in the labor market among private firms, at least in the second quarter of the year.

However, the expectations of the world of work are beginning to be affected by the same symptoms as the rest of the indicators of the economy: while it shows a decrease of 6 points compared to the same quarter of last year, it reflects a 4 points ahead of the first three months of the year. That is to say, it reflects a slight rebound, but still below the levels it posted for the same period of 2018.

"We are in a constant downsizing, without major moves, but it will be a better quarter than in the past," said Fernando Podestá, National Director of Operations and Vice President of ManpowerGroup Argentina. Podestá also recalled that net job creation expectations increased by 10% between 2010 and 2014, but stagnated after this year without major changes to date.

However, the first quarter data was the worst of the last twelve years, so the turnaround over this period shows that expectations could be slightly improved, but that they would start from the bottom of the labor market.

Which sectors lead to this slight rebound? The terrain is the big protagonist, according to the survey of the specialized consultant. This sector will post + 7% of net job creation expectations adjusted for seasonal variations. They also collect + 4% in public administration and transport and public services and 1% in construction. In the latter sector, expectations improve "significantly" by eleven percentage points from the first quarter. In the meantime, employers report a drop of eight points compared to the same period of 2018.

Podestá highlighted the progress of the agriculture and fisheries sector, the only one that has not only increased compared to the previous quarter, but compared to the same period of 2018. At that time, the impact Drought in the field has been verified. The specialist also said promote health (in public administration), energy and health
low cost (in the transport sector).

According to the private survey, those who will continue to be most concerned will be the manufacturing industry (-1%), services (-1%) and the wholesale and retail trade (-5%). %). The latter worries a lot. "The labor market is expected to be the weakest since the start of the survey for the next quarter, twelve years ago." Employers posted a weak job forecast of -5%, yielding respectively two and ten percentage points in the quarterly and interannual comparisons ", confirms the ManpowerGroup report.

"If the sale in business continues to fall, we find that the sector does not raise and that the services badociated with manufacturing are not," Podestá said. However, the specialist said that if construction, especially private construction, resumed, it would stimulate improvements in the manufacturing sector.

"I think it will be a very bad year, although I do not think it is negative," said Podestá, wishing to broaden his badysis until the end of the year, a period marked by presidential elections. "Large and medium-sized companies have higher hiring expectations, so they're seeing more improvement than small and micro-sized companies, whose expectations in terms of adding employees remain high. negative ", he said in the coming months on the Argentine labor market.